Avatar’ Over ‘Hurt Locker?’ AG’s Predictions for This Weekend’s Golden Globe Awards

by 8 years ago

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I hope I’m wrong, I really hope I’m wrong. For the past few weeks, I’ve been singing the praise of “The Hurt Locker,” urging you to go out and see what I consider to be the best movie of the year. Then last night I saw “Avatar” and today decided to sit down and make some predictions about Sunday night’s Golden Globe Awards (NBC, 8 p.m.). As much as it pains me to say so, I think “Avatar” and James Cameron will be taking home the top trophies this weekend.

That’s not to say that’s how I’d cast my ballot if I actually had a vote. I still say “The Hurt Locker” is the best movie of the year. But, visually and cinematically, “Avatar” is such a mind-boggling spectacular experience and is such a game-changer in the history of movies (and the box office), that there’s little doubt in my mind that the Hollywood Foreign Press, a rogue group of about 100 L.A.-based foreign film critics, will honor it on Sunday.

I still think “The Hurt Locker” is the front runner for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. I contend the Oscar voters will shower Cameron and his army with every technical award — and perhaps even give him Best Director over “Hurt’s” Kathryn Bigelow — but I have a feeling that they’ll effectively say, “Look, Jim, you’ve got your $2 billion; we’re giving the little gold guy to the little Iraq movie.” And yet I also think it remains a three-way race (out of 10), with “Up in the Air” best capturing the mood of the nation while delivering George Clooney’s best performance (his Best Actor win is a lock both on Sunday and in early March). Should be a fun couple months of politicking and predictions.

So let’s get to the Golden Globe picks. Again, this is who I think will win, not who I think should win (i.e. “The Hangover”). (N.B. Last year I went 17 for 25 in my Globes picks (11 for 14 in the movie categories), and 20 for 25 in my Oscar picks, in case anyone out there is in a pool.)

Best Motion Picture, Drama

What Will Win: ‘Avatar’

‘The Hurt Locker’

‘Inglourious Basterds’

‘Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire’

‘Up in the Air’

Best Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical

‘500 Days of Summer’

‘The Hangover’

‘It’s Complicated’

What Will Win: ‘Julie & Julia’

‘Nine’

Best Director – Motion Picture

Kathryn Bigelow, ‘The Hurt Locker’

Who Will Win: James Cameron, ‘Avatar’

Clint Eastwood, ‘Invictus’

Jason Reitman, ‘Up in the Air’

Quentin Tarantino, ‘Inglourious Basterds’

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Jeff Bridges, ‘Crazy Heart’

Who Will Win: George Clooney, ‘Up in the Air’

Colin Firth, ‘A Single Man’

Morgan Freeman, ‘Invictus’

Tobey Maguire, ‘Brothers’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Emily Blunt, ‘The Young Victoria’

Sandra Bullock, ‘The Blind Side’

Helen Mirren, ‘The Last Station’

Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan, ‘An Education’

Gabourey Sidibe, ‘Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire’

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Matt Damon, ‘Invictus’

Woody Harrelson, ‘The Messenger’

Christopher Plummer, ‘The Last Station’

Stanley Tucci, ‘The Lovely Bones’

Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz, ‘Inglourious Basterds’

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Penelope Cruz, ‘Nine’

Vera Farmiga, ‘Up in the Air’

Anna Kendrick, ‘Up in the Air’

Who Will Win: Mo’Nique, ‘Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire’

Julianne Moore, ‘A Single Man’

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy

Matt Damon, ‘The Informant!’

Daniel Day-Lewis, ‘Nine’

Who Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr., ‘Sherlock Holmes’

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, ‘(500) Days of Summer

Michael Stuhlbarg, ‘A Serious Man’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Comedy

Sandra Bullock, ‘The Proposal’

Marion Cotillard, ‘Nine’

Julia Roberts, ‘Duplicity’

Meryl Streep, ‘It’s Complicated’

Who Will Win: Meryl Streep, ‘Julie and Julia’

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

‘The Hurt Locker,’ Mark Boal

‘District 9,’ Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell

‘Inglourious Basterds,’ Quentin Tarantino

‘It’s Complicated,’ Nancy Meyers

What Will Win: ‘Up in the Air,’ Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Best Animated Feature Film

‘Coraline’

What Will Win: ‘Fantastic Mr. Fox’

‘Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs’

‘The Princess and the Frog’

‘Up’

Best Foreign Language Film

‘A Prophet’

‘The White Ribbon’

What Will Win: ‘The Maid’

‘Baaria’

If the Golden Globes are relatively meaningless for movies, they’re absolutely meaningless in the TV categories. Most interesting for me will be whether or not “Glee” breaks into the awards. This is the new show that’s received the most amount of buzz and fan support all season, but will the foreign critics give a shit about a Midwestern glee club? I’m guessing not.

Best Television Series, Drama

‘Big Love’

‘Dexter’

‘House’

What Will Win: ‘Mad Men’

‘True Blood’

Best Televison Series, Comedy or Musical

What Will Win: ’30 Rock’

‘Entourage’

‘Glee’

‘Modern Family’

‘The Office’

Best Actor in a Television Series, Drama

Simon Baker, ‘The Mentalist’

Michael C. Hall, ‘Dexter’

Jon Hamm, ‘Mad Men’

Who Will Win: Hugh Laurie, ‘House’

Bill Paxton, ‘Big Love’

Best Actress in a Television Series, Drama

Who Will Win: Julianna Margulies, ‘The Good Wife’

Glenn Close,’Damages’

January Jones, ‘Mad Men’

Anna Paquin, ‘True Blood’

Kyra Sedgwick, ‘The Closer’

Best Actor in a Television Series, Comedy or Musical

Who Will Win: Alec Baldwin, ’30 Rock’

Steve Carell, ‘The Office’

Thomas Jane, ‘Hung’

David Duchovny, ‘Californication’

Matthew Morrison, ‘Glee’

Best Actress in a Television Series, Comedy or Musical

Toni Collette, ‘United States of Tara’

Courteney Cox, ‘Cougar Town’

Who Will Win: Tina Fey, ’30 Rock’

Edie Falco, ‘Nurse Jackie’

Lea Michele, ‘Glee’

Best Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

What Will Win: ‘Grey Gardens’

‘Into the Storm’

‘Little Dorrit’

‘Taking Chance’

‘Georgia O’Keeffe’

Best Actor in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

Kevin Bacon, ‘Taking Chance’

Kenneth Branagh, ‘Wallander: One Step Behind’

Chiwetel Ejiofor, ‘Endgame’

Who Will Win: Brendan Gleeson, ‘Into the Storm’

Jeremy Irons, ‘Georgia O’Keeffe’

Best Actress in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

Joan Allen, ‘Georgia O’Keeffe’

Who Will Win: Drew Barrymore, ‘Grey Gardens’

Jessica Lange, ‘Grey Gardens’

Anna Paquin, ‘The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler’

Sigourney Weaver, ‘Prayers for Bobby’

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

Who Will Win: Neil Patrick Harris, ‘How I Met Your Mother’

Michael Emerson, ‘Lost’

Jeremy Piven, ‘Entourage’

William Hurt, ‘Damages’

John Lithgow, ‘Dexter’

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television

Jane Adams, ‘Hung’

Rose Byrne, ‘Damages’

Jane Lynch, ‘Glee’

Who Will Win: Janet McTeer, ‘Into the Storm’

Chloe Sevigny, ‘Big Love’ “


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