We’ve waited 37 years since the last Triple Crown in horse racing. As we enter Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, everyone is wondering whether or not American Pharoah has what it takes. Ninety thousand people will be at Belmont Park to witness history. (They capped the attendance this year after the transportation disaster from 102,199 attendees.) I’ll be one of them and I imagine that most people there will want to see a Triple Crown. It’s just not an easy thing to do.
Only 12 horses in the previous 36 years have won the Kentucky Derby and then gone on to win the Preakness. All came up short in the Belmont Stakes. Some were right there, while others faded into the abyss. Those 12 horses have generally lost to horses that came into the Belmont with extra rest. Whether it be racing in the Derby and then skipping the Preakness or entering the Belmont as their first Triple Crown race, trainers are now entering fresh horses in the Belmont. Running three races in five weeks isn’t easy. It’s unheard of outside of the Triple Crown. It takes a special horse to win all three races and matters are made worse for those special horses when they’re going against fresh horses.
We can debate the semantics of whether or not horses should be allowed to race in the Belmont after skipping the Preakness, let alone skipping the Derby as well. But that’s not why we’re here today. We’re here to pick a winner.
The race will set up very simply. American Pharoah and Materiality will both go for the early lead. If American Pharoah fights for the lead with Materiality, he will lose the race. Even if he wards off Materiality, he will use too much energy to hold on for the win. We can’t assume he’s capable of blowing out the whole field like Secretariat. If American Pharoah lets Materiality get the lead, he’ll have a chance. He doesn’t need to be leading the race as we saw in the Derby. He just needs to be right there and know when to hit the gas. California Chrome was out of gas last year despite being right in the mix. Here’s hoping Phoroah has some in his tank.
After those two, there’s a lot of crap in this race. Here’s a full rundown of the horses in this year’s Belmont Stakes
1 – Mubtaahij – 10/1
I didn’t like him going into the Derby. He finished 8th in that race. He faded slightly towards the end. I don’t like him now either. The fact that he’s a decent price is surprising.
2 – Tale of Verve – 15/1
Slop is a different kind of beast. Some horses can run in it and some can’t. Verve proved he could run in the slop when he finished second to Pharoah in the Preakness. The weather’s supposed to be good on Saturday and Verve just hasn’t shown he’s capable of putting up a strong enough Beyer Speed Figure to compete against Pharoah.
3 – Madefromlucky – 12/1
You may remember Madefromlucky’s dad. He was Looking at Lucky. That’s the same Looking at Lucky who won the Preakness and won the Haskell Invitational. There’s some quality in Todd Pletcher’s lesser known horse and he already won on this track four weeks ago in the Peter Pan. He’s ready to throw his head into the picture.
4 – Frammento – 30/1
I could easily copy and paste what I wrote about Mubtaahij. I didn’t like him in the Derby. He didn’t run well, finishing 11th. I don’t like him here. His trainer, Nick Zito, has won the Belmont twice, so that warrants mentioning. I just think he’ll have to pull one out of his ass for this one.
5 – American Pharoah – 3/1
I already explained what has to happen for Pharoah to win. I’m hoping everyone is smart enough to not let him fight for the lead. What’s good is Victor Espinoza didn’t have to go to the whip too much in the Preakness after using it a lot in the Derby. Let’s hope that means there’s a little left in this guy’s tank. We want the Triple Crown.
6 – Frosted – 5/1
Frosted finished fourth in the Derby after passing horses like mad in the final stretch. He was a non-factor coming into the race and surprised some people by finishing off the superfecta. He’s certainly not a bad horse and will be hoping for a speed duel between Pharoah and Materiality to start the race. He’s clearly capable of putting up a big number like he did in the Wood Memorial, but one has to wonder if he’s still a race or so away from that.
7 – Keen Ice – 20/1
Do you remember Keen Ice from the Derby? Neither does anyone else. He finished seventh, but was never a factor. He’s got a fine dad named Curiln, but something just seems to be missing here.
8 – Materiality – 6/1
Assuming Pharoah is smart and lets Materiality take the lead, the question is how far Materiality drops once they get to the top of the stretch. I could easily see him still making the top three. It’ll be interesting to see if a completely different approach is taken here because sending him to the front and watching Pharoah stalk him is probably a death wish. But he definitely be viable.
How to bet the race:
You have two ways of betting this race. You can key American Pharoah on top of all exactas and trifectas while wheeling other horses behind him. That’s the way I’m playing the race on Saturday, but I can totally understand if you take another approach. History is not on Pharoah’s side. Playing Pharoah behind a few shots in an exacta isn’t a bad call. You’ll just be the person who bet against the Triple Crown winner if you’re wrong.
Projected order of finish:
1 – American Pharoah
2 – Madefromlucky
3 – Materiality
4 – Frosted