We’ve got NFL football on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week. Tell your family and loved ones that you don’t have time for carol singing and presents shopping. (That’s why God created Amazon.) It’s crunch time in the NFL season for your favorite team and crunch time for your fantasy football teams. If four days of NFL in six isn’t the season of giving, I don’t know what is. (As long as you don’t play running back in the NFL, in which case it’s the season of medical insurance. We lost a few more last weekend. This is becoming insane.)
Thursday Night Pick:
Tampa Bay +2.5 over ST. LOUIS
Thursday night’s game is somewhat of a non-descript affair. You have two of the elite offensive players from this year’s NFL Draft involved, but neither of them have become must see television yet. Jameis Winston has seemingly elevated Tampa Bay to another level this year as the Buccaneers went from first pick in the draft to a respectable 6-7 record, but his numbers aren’t that great when you look closer. He’s ranked 30th in completion %, 26th in quarterback rating, and 27th in passing yards per game. Jameis has definitely been an upgrade over last year’s situation, but Tampa Bay’s ability to run has really been the key to the offense.
St. Louis is around league average against the run and their defense has gotten worse recently due to the injuries. They’ve allowed 121.5 yards per game to RBs in the last six after holding them to 79 yards a game in the first eight. (For what it’s worth the passing defense has gotten slightly worse in the same time frame too.) The Buccaneers best option tonight is to lean heavily on their RB and limit turnovers.
Todd Gurley looked like must see television for a few weeks this season, but the pathetic coaching job and offensive talent around him have had his production tailed off in recent weeks. It’s become too easy for defenses to key on Gurley because the connection of Nick Foles or Case Keenum to Kenny Britt just isn’t going to scare anyone. For entertainment sake, we have to hope Gurley is able to replicate last week’s success (a huge second half with long runs and two touchdowns) in tonight’s game to make it watchable. Tampa Bay’s eighth ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders (and it’s gotten better in the second half of the season) will want otherwise. The good thing for St. Louis is that the Buccaneers offense isn’t explosive enough to get out to a big early lead and force the Rams to abandon Gurley and the run.
Based on all this, the under seems like a nice play tonight even if the # is 41. I don’t see both teams getting to 20 points. I’ll go with the team showcasing the hotter defense and the quarterback (despite some of his numbers) that can make plays when it counts. Move the Rams to Los Angeles and let’s move on.
J.Camm’s pick: St Louis
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 103-99-6
Locks: 26-17
JCamm: 103-99-6 (Took me all season, but we’re finally all knotted up. Now it’s time for me to bury this motherfucker.)