I started writing this column while pre-gaming for World Series Game 3. Unfortunately, the beer got the best of me and the amount of words for each game decreased dramatically. God bless the 12 back. Here are this week’s picks.
Locks of the Week:
Cincinnati PK over PITTSBURGH
It looks like Big Ben is back for the Steelers this weekend and not a moment too soon. Pittsburgh was lucky to steel a couple games without him. Unfortunately he returns against a high flying Bengals passing attack. There will be no room for error in what’s expected to be a shootout. Cincinnati has the edge on defense and should have no trouble scoring against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
J.Camm’s Pick: Pittsburgh
ATLANTA -7 over Tampa Bay
Atlanta needs a game like this one to get their offensive mojo back. Tampa Bay is allowing the most points per game so this seems like a nice opportunity for them to do so. Atlanta’s defense is playing better at home, averaging 2.7 turnovers created while the Buccaneers are turning over the ball 1.9 times a game generally. Vincent Jackson is out with an injury, which doesn’t help the Buccaneers case the keep up in a high scoring affair. The heartbreaking loss to Washington last week could also cause a hangover effect for this young team.
J.Camm’s Pick: Atlanta
San Diego +3.5 over BALTIMORE
As mediocre as the Chargers are as home, they’re pretty solid as road underdogs. It also fits their personality tremendously that the Ravens have the 25thranked passing defense in the league according to DVOA. Expect Philip Rivers to throw it 90-95 times. It’s just not Baltimore’s season as was shown last week in their sixth loss decided by eight points or less in which they had the ball to tie the game on the final drive.
J.Camm’s Pick: Baltimore
Trap Games of the Week:
N.Y. Jets -3 over OAKLAND
This is a true test for the Jets in a letdown spot after losing to the Patriots. I’m trusting their defense to take care of business.
J.Camm’s Pick: NY Jets
Rest of the Picks:
Detroit +4 over KANSAS CITY
We’re blessed with another mediocre 930a start for a London game, but don’t forget to set your clock back an hour when you go to bed or else you’ll wake up an hour early with a Halloween hangover and want to shoot yourself in the face. The Lions fired their offensive coordinator last week, but we all know the coach is the real problem. Jim Caldwell just can’t coach them up and has only been successful when his players could play well for any head coach. Kansas City just doesn’t feel great as a large favorite. They’re offense just isn’t prolific enough for me to want to back them.
J.Camm’s Pick: Detroit
N.Y. Giants +3.5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints have won two games in a row more due to their opponents’ failure rather than their own success. Indianapolis and Atlanta couldn’t get anything going early on, thus creating too large of a hill to climb when they played better in the second half. This is a perfect spot for the Giants as an underdog, which they relish. Odell Beckham is also practicing this week in full for the first time in three weeks, which should help both him and Eli Manning on Sunday. We love a little narrative street and that’s what we have with both Odell and Eli heading home to Louisiana this weekend.
J.Camm’s Pick: New Orleans
CHICAGO +1 over Minnesota
Don’t look now, but the Bears have actually played well in the last few weeks. Their offense has all its pieces back and Jay Cutler is playing within himself. There’s also word that he’s stepping up his maturity and showing leadership by being vocal in team meetings. Wait, is this the same DGAF Smoking Jay Cutler who we all know? Minnesota’s defense is below league average, so we should expect more success from the Bears offense this weekend. But can the Bears defense come through? Chicago has had an extra weekend to prepare for Adrian Peterson and would be best served letting Teddy Bridgewater best them. Minnesota’s wins this year aren’t that great, so why should I be impressed to have them give points on the road?
J.Camm’s Pick: Minnesota
Arizona -5.5 over CLEVELAND
Cleveland showed some life early in the season, but the wear and tear is affecting them as time rolls on. Their run defense has been bad all year, ranking 32nd in the league according to DVOA and their passing defense being banged up. Arizona’s blitzing defensive style will be a problem for Josh McCown, who didn’t deal well with the Rams pass rush last week. The quality of the offense won’t chance if Johnny Manziel ends up playing some instead because even his mobility can only help so much if he hasn’t seen this type of blitzing defense in his young career.
J.Camm’s Pick: Arizona
ST. LOUIS -8 over San Francisco
The 49ers haven’t performed well offensively against good defenses. St. Louis should blow out this one.
J.Camm’s Pick: San Francisco
Tennessee +4 over HOUSTON
Houston has already decided it’s mailing in the season. This would’ve been nicer with Mariota playing, but I’ll take the points anyway.
J.Camm’s Pick: Tennessee
Seattle -5.5 over DALLAS
Changing from Brandon Weeden to Matt Cassel means more explosively on offense for Dallas, but also more turnovers as we saw last week. That doesn’t match-up well for Dallas against Seattle even if Dez is back.
J.Camm’s Pick: Seattle
Green Bay -3 over DENVER
I don’t care how good the Broncos’ defense is. Peyton Manning needs to score 14 points of his own to win this one. I’m not sure that’s possible with the Packers pass rush.
J.Camm’s Pick: Green Bay
CAROLINA -7 over Indianapolis
Carolina has some respect with the spread, but the Colts have to show you they can cover it. They haven’t in recent weeks.
J.Camm’s Pick: Carolina
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-7-1
Season: 54-48-5
Locks: 16-6
Survivor: 5-2
JCamm: 55-47-5