Odds:
Spread: Boston -9
Total: 215.5
Moneyline: Boston -403, Miami +316
What The Numbers Say:
Boston has won 53, or 71.6%, of the 74 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
This year, Boston has won 15 of 23 games when listed as at least -403 or better on the moneyline.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Boston has a 80.1% chance of pulling out a win.
Miami is 8-16 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 33.3% of those games).
Prediction:
The Heat’s 123-116 Game one victory in the Eastern Conference finals was fueled by the highest-scoring period in Miami playoff history (46 points in the third). Jimmy Butler is on a mission that can only be compared to an Impractical Jokers Cruise patron weave their way through a crowd for second serving at the buffet line. Butler has 12 of his game-high 35 points in the fourth quarter alone. Being that the Celtics had a top-three defense in the NBA during the regular season, Miami’s performance from beyond the arc was shocking to say the least. The Heat shot over 51 percent from deep, signaling a stark contrast from finishing the regular season ranked 27th in 3-point efficiency- but hey, that’s momentum I guess. As romantic as the Miami Heat have been, at some point we have to be real.
The Celtics are a better team. That being said, the last round of the playoffs started this way, with James Harden muscling the Sixers to a shocking game one win. And we aren’t talking about the Sixers right now are we? Boston couldn’t get out of their own way in game one. Jayson Tatum barely touched the ball thanks to bad spacing, they played defense like the oldest guy in your pickup basketball league, and Joe Mazzulla failed to make any necessary adjustments. But lightning doesn’t strike twice. The Celtics, with a better gameplan, will win game two at home with ease. Vegas likes the Celtics -9, and they should win by double digits. Whether you believe me or not, place your first $5 bet to get $150 in Bonus Bets with my friends at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Help me help you.
Schedule:
Game 2: Heat at Celtics, Friday, May 19 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Game 3: Celtics at Heat, Sunday, May 21 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Game 4: Celtics at Heat, Tuesday, May 23 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Game 5: Heat at Celtics, Thursday, May 25 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)*
Game 6: Celtics at Heat, Saturday, May 27 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)*
Game 7: Heat at Celtics, Monday, May 29 (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT)*