Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet

MIAMI, FL - MAY 17: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat look on during Game 4 of the 2022 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals on May 17, 2022 at The FTX Arena in Miami, Florida.

The Basics:

  • Who: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
  • Date: Tuesday, May 23, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET / 5:30 PM PT
  • Venue: Kaseya Center
  • Spread: Heat -1.5 (52% probability)
  • Moneyline: Heat @ -118 (57% probability)
  • Total: Over 215.5

By The Numbers:

  • Miami has won 36, or 62.1%, of the 58 contests in which it was the favorite this year.
  • This season, Miami has come away with a win 33 times in 52 chances when named as a favorite of at least -124 or better on the Moneyline.
  • The Moneyline set for this matchup implies Miami has a 55.4% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Boston has won four of the eight games it was the underdog on the Moneyline this season (50%).
  • When playing as a Moneyline underdog with odds of +104 or longer, Boston has a record of 3-4 (42.9%).
  • Boston has a 49% chance to win this matchup based on the Moneyline’s implied probability.
  • Miami is 17-16-1 against the spread and 26-8 overall when scoring more than 111.4 points.
  • Boston is 39-20-2 against the spread and 49-12 overall when it scores more than 109.8 points.
  • Miami is 26-36-3 against the spread and 39-26 overall when it gives up fewer than 117.9 points.


Between the lack of defensive effort and heart, It would be crazy to bet on the Celtics after their game-three performance in Miami. After having their best regular season since Kevin Garnett wore green, Boston finds itself trying to climb back from being down 0-3 in the series. The last team to win a series after being down 0-3? No team. Ever. Teams are 0-149 all-time when trailing a seven-game series 0-3. They showed zero fight after the game’s first few minutes, and it was one thing when Jimmy Butler was eating Boston’s lunch on their home court, but Miami’s role players decided game three. Miami’s three undrafted free agents — Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Duncan Robinson — led the game in scoring and exposed the Celtics as what they are- frauds.

Vincent, Robinson, and Martin weren’t just a few scrappy role players fighting for every minute on Sunday. They were the best players on the floor in a game that put Miami in the driver’s seat to become Eastern Conference champions eventually. Vincent led all scorers with a career-high 29 points, while Robinson and Martin chipped in 22 and 18 points, respectively. Of the seven players to play 20-plus minutes last night for Miami, just three — Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry — were drafted. Erik Spoelstra is getting a blank check this offseason, and Miami is getting another trip to the NBA Finals. Vegas likes the Heat -1.5, and they will win by double digits for the second game in a row. Take the Heat. 

Either way, place a $5 bet on the game and get $150 no matter if your bet wins or loses with FanDuel.

Best Bet:

This season, Miami has come away with a win 33 times in 52 chances when named as a favorite of at least -124 or better on the Moneyline. The Celtics have no pulse. There are ninety-eight-year-old men harassing their Jamaican caregiver in South Beach with more life than the shamrocks. That number will become 34 after tomorrow night.