The Basics:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -3
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 210 points
- Celtics vs. Heat Moneyline: Celtics -160, Heat +135
What The Numbers Say:
- Boston has come away with 53 wins in the 74 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
- This season, Boston has come away with a win 45 times in 63 chances when named as a favorite of at least -144 or better on the Moneyline.
- Boston has an implied victory probability of 59% according to the Moneyline set for this matchup.
- Miami has been the Moneyline underdog 24 total times this season. Miami has gone 8-16 in those games.
- Miami has a record of 5-11 when playing as a Moneyline underdog with odds of +122 or longer (31.2%).
- Miami has a 45% chance to win this contest based on the Moneyline’s implied probability.
- The Celtics record 8.1 more points per game (117.9) than the Heat allow (109.8).
- Boston is 39-20-2 against the spread and 49-12 overall when scoring more than 109.8 points.
- Miami is 26-36-3 against the spread and 39-26 overall when giving up fewer than 117.9 points.
- The Heat average only 1.9 fewer points per game (109.5) than the Celtics allow their opponents to score (111.4).
- Miami has put together a 17-16-1 ATS record and a 26-8 overall record in games it scores more than 111.4 points.
- Boston is 28-7-1 against the spread and 31-5 overall when it allows fewer than 109.5 points.
Prediction:
Celtics and the Miami Heat meet for Game 6 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference Finals series Saturday at Kaseya Center. The Heat lead the series 3-2. Tip is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT). The Celtics slipped into an 0-3 series hole, but Boston hasn’t shown any signs of quitting. The C’s staved off elimination in Miami with a 116-99 win in Game 4 as 1-point ‘dogs and then routed the Heat 110-97 at TD Garden in Game 5 to force the series back to South Florida. They are attempting to become the first team ever — out of 151 tries — to completely overcome such a deficit.
During the first three games of this series, Boston was just 31 of 106 (29.2 percent) from deep. Through the law of averages, the Celtics should make it rain tonight. They’ve won on the road before, and they can do it again. Vegas likes the Celtics -3, and they will bring this series to seven.
Best Bet:
Celtics’ Moneyline is the play here. This season, The Celtics have come away with a win 45 times in 63 chances when named as a favorite of at least -144 or better on the Moneyline.
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