Heat vs. Celtics Game 5 Odds, Predictions, and Best Bet

Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat and Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics look on during Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals on May 23, 2023 at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida.

The Basics:

  • Series: MIA leads 3-1
  • Date: Thursday, May 25, 2023
  • Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
  • US TV coverage: TNT
  • Spread: Boston -7.5
  • Total: 215.5
  • Moneyline: Boston -299, Miami +239
  • A Special Suprise: At the bottom of the page.

By The Numbers:

  • This year, Boston has won 25 of 35 games when listed as at least -299 or better on the Moneyline.
  • Boston has an implied victory probability of 74.9%, according to the Moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Miami has compiled an 8-16 record in games it was listed as the Moneyline underdog (winning 33.3% of those games).
  • Miami has not yet won a game when entering as a Moneyline underdog with odds of +239 or longer in three chances.
  • The lowest-scoring NBA team (109.5 PPG) is Miami, while the Boston squad ranks fourth in the league defensively (111.4 PPG).
  • The Celtics have outscored their opponents by a total of 535 points this season (6.5 points per game on average), and opponents of the Heat have outscored them by 26 more points on the year (0.3 per game).

Prediction:

Facing the potential of an ugly sweep, the Celtics kept their faith in each other to come back in a do-or-die, 116-99 game-four win to prolong their season. While no team has ever won a series after being down 0-3, between their 18-0 third-quarter run, Tatum’s 33 points, and five other Celtics scoring in the double figures, Boston’s performance should have them feeling confident going into game five at home. It’s not entirely implausible to see this team winning four straight. It’s unlikely (they would be the first team in 150 tries to do so), but much like the movie Dumb and Dumber- I’m saying there’s a chance.

And hey, guess what? I’m not the only one saying that. Jayson Tatum and the Celtics’ odds to win the series shortened to +240 (bet $100 to win $340 total) from +600 to win the series. The Heat’s series odds shifted drastically to -303 (bet $10 to win $13.33 total) from -1250 (bet $10 to win $10.80 total) overnight. 

We know the Celtics have more talent, and the Heat have the culture. It’s why Jimmy Butler and Miami have commanded the series since the opening tip-off. The problem that Miami faces is that if Boston can continue to shoot from beyond the three-point line as they did in game four, culture is nothing but a word girls have in their Hinge bios. The Celtics finished 18 of 45 from the three-point line on Tuesday. Including the playoffs, they’re a staggering 50-12 in games when they make 15+ 3-pointers. During the regular season, Golden State (54) was the only team to hit 15-plus 3s in more games than the Celtics (53).

During the first three games of this series, Boston was just 31 of 106 (29.2 percent) from deep. Through the law of averages, the Celtics should make it rain on Thursday night. Vegas likes the Celtics -7.5, and with what we saw the other night, they should bring this series to game six. Take the Celtics.

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Best Bet:

Boston has won 25 of 35 games this year when listed as at least -299 or better on the Moneyline. That’s about as steadily predictable as your post-coffee bathroom trip every morning. The Celtics’ Moneyline is a bet on Jayson Tatum, making sure this thing goes six games. Boston has an implied victory probability of 74.9%, according to the Moneyline set for this matchup. That’s all the convincing I need.

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