Game Information:
- How to Watch: ESPN
- Game Date: 5/22/23
- Game Time: 8:30 P.M. ET
- Arena: Crypto.com
- Series 3-0 Nuggets
Series Odds:
- Nuggets odds to win the series (-5000)
- Lakers odds to win the series (+1400)
Game 4 Odds:
- Moneyline: Nuggets (+120), Lakers (-167)
- Spread: Nuggets +3 (-110), Lakers -3 (-110)
- Over/Under: 224.5- Over (-110), Under (-110)
Betting Trends:
- The Nuggets are 23-25 ATS this year on the road
- The Lakers have covered the spread 56.8% of the time after a loss which ranks 6th in the NBA
- The Lakers are 5-1 ATS after a loss this playoff
- The Lakers are 6-1 ATS at home this playoff
- The Lakers are 6-1 straight up at home this playoff, and 9-1 in their last 10 games
- The under has hit 4 out of 6 times after a Lakers loss this playoff
- The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when they are underdogs
- The Nuggets have hit the over of points in 6 out of their last 8 road games
- The over has hit 65% of the time in the Lakers’ last 20 games against the Nuggets
Game 4 Predictions
The Nuggets took care of business in game 3, beating the Lakers 119-108 to take a 3-0 series lead. This was a game the Lakers absolutely needed to win because no team has ever come back from being down 3-0 in a series (0-149). Game 3 was LA’s chance to get back in this series, but they couldn’t contain Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic for 48 minutes. The Nuggets got out to a hot start, with Jamal Murray scoring 30 of his 37 points in the first half. The Lakers then made a run and got themselves back in the game, finding themselves down just two points heading into the 4th quarter after a slow start. But just when Jamal Murray started to cool off, Nikola Jokic took over, scoring 15 out of his 24 points in the 4th quarter.
The Lakers were outscored 35-26 in the 4th, and that quarter most likely decided their fate. This series would have been completely different if they had shown up in the 4th and won the game. The difference in this game was the long ball. The Lakers shot 31.3%, while the Nuggets shot 41.5%. The Lakers got to the line more (29-19) and out-rebounded the Nuggets (45-39) but struggled from the three-point line, which proved to be the main reason why Denver was able to walk away with the win.
Moving onto game 4, this series is all but over. The Nuggets are playing great basketball at the moment, and overall, they are just a better team. With that being said, I don’t see the Lakers getting swept. They are 9-1 at home in their last ten games and 6-1 this playoff. They are a much better team defensively at home, giving up only 113.8 points a game compared to 119.4 on the road. In contrast, the Nuggets average around 113.8 points on the road while scoring 119.4 at home which is almost a 6-point difference. In addition to that, the Nuggets are 3-3 on the road this playoff and 8-0 at home. They haven’t been as consistent on the road, while the Lakers have been great at home.
The Nuggets have shot 50% from the field and almost 42% from three against the Lakers this series, and I think they are due for a slow night. The closeout game is always the toughest, and I think they get the Lakers’ best effort so far in this series. My final score prediction is the Lakers winning 114-109
Best Bet:
My best bet
(Lakers -3)My best bet is for the Lakers to cover the 3-point spread. Even though the Lakers have lost the first three games, they have had chances to win each. I do not think they’ll be able to go back and win in Denver, but I think you see the best of them Monday night to avoid the sweep. Lebron James has only been swept two times throughout his playoff career, and as I mentioned, the Lakers are much better at home than they are on the road. They are 6-1 ATS at home during this playoff run, and overall, they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. And in addition to that, they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against the Nuggets. Take the Lakers to cover.
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