The Northern Trust Preview: Key Stats, Picks To Win, Contend And Fade

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It’s playoff time, folks. The first of three FedEx Cup Playoff events is here as the Top 125 in the FedEx Cup Standings begin their quest for the FedEx Cup at this week’s Northern Trust at TPC Boston.

All of the game’s biggest names are in the field this week including Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, and others.

Last year’s Northern Trust took place at Liberty National just outside New York City as the two courses will alternate hosting over the coming years. The last time the PGA Tour made a stop at TPC Boston was for the 2018 Dell Technologies Championship when Bryson DeChambeau won the event.

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Key Stats

TPC Boston is a Par 71 track that will play just over 7,300 yards this week and like most courses in the northeast, the course has bentgrass greens. This course certainly fits the mold of a ‘bomber’s paradise’ which you can see from past winners here which include Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and DeChambeau.

Strokes gained: off the tee is a key stat this week, but don’t forget to look at strokes gained: approach either as the game’s ball-strikers should be hovering around the top of the leaderboard all week as they usually do.

Last week’s picks for Wyndham: Pick To Win, Harris English (T-23); Pick To Contend, Paul Casey (T-31); Pick To Fade, Kevin Kisner (T-3).

Pick To Win

Justin Thomas

Thomas opens the playoffs ranked No. 1 in the standings, won the WGC FedEx-St. Jude Invitational at the start of the month, and has a win at TPC Boston under his belt coming back in 2017. There’s a reason he’s a co-favorite this week alongside DeChambeau.

The 27-year-old leads the Tour in strokes gained: approach and certainly hits it long enough to have short-irons into some greens averaging over 301 yards off the tee.

Odds: 12-1

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Pick To Contend (Top 10 Finish)

Jon Rahm

Speaking of long-hitters, the No. 1 player in the world is strong with the driver in-hand ranking fifth on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee. His T-13 finish at the PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago flew under the radar a bit after he finished the tournament with a 66 on Sunday.

He found success at this course in 2017 picking up a T-4 finish. I look for Rahm, No. 10 in the FedEx Cup standings, to get off to a quick start in the first playoff event of the year.

Odds: 16-1

Pick To Fade

Adam Scott

The Aussie’s resume at TPC Boston is remarkable with a win here in 2003 to go along with six Top 10’s, but he enters the week with just one start on Tour since the season resumed earlier in the summer. He was fine at the PGA Championship finishing T-22 and not shooting over 70 in each of the first four rounds, but we simply don’t know enough about Scott’s game at this point to go out there and say he’s going to light the course on fire just because he’s had success here in the past.

Odds: 35-1

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