3M Open Preview: Picks To Win, Contend And Fade

3m open picks preview


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After two straight weeks at Muirfield Village, the PGA Tour heads to Minnesota for this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. Matthew Wolff will be defending his title this week after earning a win here a year ago in what was just his third start as a pro.

Last week’s winner Jon Rahm will be taking the week off, but the likes of Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, and Brooks Koepka headline yet another strong field for this week’s tournament.

Last week’s picks: Pick to Win, Hideki Matsuyama (MC); Pick to Contend, Collin Morikawa (T-48); Pick to Fade, Jon Rahm (win). No, it was not my best week of picks, but we’re bouncing back this week.

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Key Stats This Week

TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 course that will stretch over 7,400 yards this week. Players will be greeted with bentgrass greens and higher/thicker than average rough, much like what we saw last week at the Memorial.

As for the key stats this week, overall distance off-the-tee will likely play a strong role in who hoists the trophy on Sunday, but it’s specifically strokes gained: approach that will be of top priority. Wolff won last year’s event while finishing second in the field in driving distance.

Pick To Win

Lucas Glover

Glover checks all of the boxes to succeed at TPC Twin Cities, plus, he fired a final-round 62 here a year ago en route to a T-7 finish.

You can’t not love Glover’s stats for the season heading into the 3M ranking 40th in strokes gained: off the tee, 26th in strokes gained: approach while sitting 32nd on Tour in birdie average carding over four per round.

Since the restart, Glover has made 5-of-5 cuts with four Top 25 finishes. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2011, but his game is clicking at all levels at the moment.

Odds: 33-1

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Pick To Contend (Top 10 Finish)

Luke List

Statistically speaking, List’s game is similar to Glover’s in a lot of areas. Both are relatively long hitters off the tee, but List has a tendency to miss a few more fairways than the average Tour player ranking 165th on Tour in driving accuracy.

Don’t let that number scare you, however. The former Vanderbilt Commodore ranks 27th on Tour in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 68th in strokes gained: approach. He’s made just two of five cuts since the restart but finished T-21 and T-10 in those tournaments that he played the weekend. List also won on the Korn Ferry Tour back in mid-June at TPC Sawgrass.

Odds: 50-1

Pick To Fade

Brooks Koepka

It’s always a bit nervewracking to bet against Koepka, even more so when he’s struggling and bound to get out of a slump sooner rather than later, but he just hasn’t been consistent since the restart.

Koepka finished 7th at the RBC Heritage, but has also missed a cut to go along with a T-32 and T-67 finish in his four starts back. He’s still got the power and game off the tee to compete with anyone, but it’s been the irons that have really let him down ranking 146th on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 189th in proximity to hole.

Odds: 12-1

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