College Football Week 12: T̶h̶r̶e̶e̶ Two Underdog Picks To Pontificate
For the second straight week, more than 10 college football games have been postponed due to COVID-19 concerns this weekend, including top-five Texas A&M’s bout against Ole Miss. But that won’t stop the rest of a packed slate from rolling along and Week 12 brings another opportunity to get in on the action!
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For every dollar that you deposit, BetMGM will double it! Once you’re signed up, it’s time to look for some value. We went 2-2 (including the bonus pick) last week (and came within one point from going 3-1) which puts us at 5-2 on the season. Let’s try to keep the positive momentum rolling forward and make some money, yes?
Here are t̶h̶r̶e̶e̶ two (one was dropped due to COVID-19) games that will be tight through all 60 minutes and could fall in favor of the underdog:
Missouri vs. South Carolina
Saturday, November 21, 2020 — 7:30 p.m. EST at Williams-Brice Stadium
Why Missouri will win:
It’s less about what Missouri can do but more so what South Carolina can’t do. The Tigers have eclipsed the 200-yard mark passing in each of their five games and quarterback Connor Bazelak is not going to do anything that will lose games. He won’t necessarily lead his team to victory behind his big arm, but the Gamecocks allowed more than 500 yards passing last weekend and Bazelak will have a chance to connect downfield. Next to him in the backfield, Larry Rountree III is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and will factor in just enough to keep the defense guessing.
South Carolina has allowed an average of 53 points per game over the last three games and it lost two important defensive back opt-outs after head coach Will Muschamp was fired early this week. Its defense was bad enough before the talent dump, and Missouri will be able to take advantage.
Why South Carolina will win:
While the circumstances in South Carolina’s version of Columbia are not ideal, there is something to be said for playing fast and loose with nothing to lose. Former Colorado State head coach Mike Bobo will serve as the interim head coach and there isn’t much pressure to win. That sets up the perfect opportunity to do so.
South Carolina ran all over Ole Miss a week ago and while he doesn’t receive the credit he deserves, running back Kevin Harris is amongst the most talented in the nation. Missouri’s defense is not forcing turnovers, not getting push into the backfield and struggles to tackle. Harris won’t break for 243 yards and five touchdowns like he did last weekend, but if he can get going early, the offense should settle in and be just fine.
Kevin Harris out here doing his best Nick Chubb impersonation.
211 rushing yards, school-record 4 rushing touchdowns vs. Ole Miss pic.twitter.com/Ip5TkWWxsn
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 15, 2020
Should the run game establish the tone and quarterback Collin Hill can find NFL-caliber receiver Shi Smith to move the chains on third down, the Gamecocks can score just enough points to win.
It’s easy to assume that the visitors will roll into town and dominate South Carolina because of all of the hullabaloo in the locker room, but don’t get too comfortable. Neither team is particularly good and the Gamecocks have enough talent sticking around to pull off the upset. Should their pass defense hold Bazelak from having a career night, this game will come down to the final possession. Take the points for extra security, if you’d like.
Pick: South Carolina Moneyline at +190 or South Carolina +6.5 at -106 on BetMGM Sportsbook
Iowa vs. Penn State
Saturday, November 21, 2020 — 3:30 p.m. EST at Beaver Stadium
Why Iowa will win:
We bet against the Hawkeyes last weekend and they proved us wrong. The run game is rocking and the offensive line is dominating defensive front-sevens. Iowa ran for 461 yards over the last two weekends and has 11 touchdowns on the ground this season. Tyler Goodson and Mekhi Sargent are a tough duo to bring down and will continue to find holes on Saturday.
America, learn this name: Tyler Goodson. ✍️
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 14, 2020
Quarterback Spencer Petras will be the key. He has thrown four interceptions to just three touchdowns on the year and completed only 53 percent of his attempts, but as Penn State stacks the box, he will be forced to complete longer passes on later downs and distance. Should the senior signal-caller keep the ball and help his offense get ahead early in the first half, Iowa should be in a good position.
Why Penn State will win:
On the flip side, Penn State’s offensive line has struggled. It has allowed a Big Ten-worst 15 sacks in four games and the lack of protection has hurt the ability to get any sort of rhythm. The offense was able to attempt to mount a comeback late in the game against Nebraska last week after head coach James Franklin benched quarterback Sean Clifford in favor of Will Levis, but two red zone flops kept it from winning down the stretch.
Clifford and Levis will likely both see time on Saturday and have to be better about starting hot. Should the Nittany Lions be able to move the ball with any semblance of success, their defense provides a great opportunity to win. It had issues against a national championship contender in Ohio State and fell apart in the final two minutes against a top 10 Indiana team, but it’s been solid against the run (where Iowa thrives) and held Nebraska below 300 total yards last week.
If Penn State can hold up front on defense, the offense has done a much better job of controlling the clock than its opponents and can potentially pull away in the fourth quarter.
Penn State became only the fourth preseason top 10 team to start the season 0-4, and no team has ever dropped to 0-5. The Nittany Lions will not be the first to do so. While they have been losing, it has been more about being unable to catch a break than it has been about being a winless-caliber football team.
It’s going to be a battle and Iowa’s inability to throw will be the difference maker.
Pick: Penn State Moneyline at +105 on BetMGM Sportsbook
W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶v̶s̶.̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶n̶f̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶ (NO BET – WSU QB Jayden De Laura OUT due to COVID-19)
S̶a̶t̶u̶r̶d̶a̶y̶,̶ N̶o̶v̶e̶m̶b̶e̶r̶ ̶1̶4̶,̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶0̶ ̶—̶ ̶1̶0̶:̶3̶0̶ ̶p̶.̶m̶.̶ ̶E̶S̶T̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶n̶f̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶d̶i̶u̶m̶
W̶h̶y̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶:̶
A̶s̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶b̶e̶e̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶s̶,̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶’̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶b̶e̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶i̶t̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶.̶ ̶F̶r̶e̶s̶h̶m̶a̶n̶ ̶q̶u̶a̶r̶t̶e̶r̶b̶a̶c̶k̶ ̶J̶a̶y̶d̶e̶n̶ ̶D̶e̶ ̶L̶a̶u̶r̶a̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶l̶e̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶6̶0̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶c̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶p̶a̶s̶s̶ ̶a̶t̶t̶e̶m̶p̶t̶s̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶5̶4̶8̶ ̶y̶a̶r̶d̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶f̶o̶u̶r̶ ̶t̶o̶u̶c̶h̶d̶o̶w̶n̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶o̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶t̶w̶o̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶o̶n̶l̶y̶ ̶o̶n̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶c̶o̶m̶p̶l̶e̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶H̶e̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶n̶g̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶t̶s̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶c̶o̶a̶c̶h̶ ̶N̶i̶c̶k̶ ̶R̶o̶l̶o̶v̶i̶c̶h̶’̶s̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶a̶ ̶t̶e̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶o̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶l̶e̶a̶s̶h̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶a̶i̶r̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶.̶ ̶
T̶h̶e̶ ̶C̶o̶u̶g̶a̶r̶s̶ ̶w̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶o̶c̶k̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶o̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶a̶l̶f̶t̶i̶m̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶s̶t̶ ̶N̶o̶.̶ ̶1̶1̶ ̶O̶r̶e̶g̶o̶n̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶e̶n̶d̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶a̶l̶m̶o̶s̶t̶ ̶p̶u̶l̶l̶e̶d̶ ̶o̶f…t̶ ̶c̶o̶u̶l̶d̶n̶’̶t̶ ̶k̶e̶e̶p̶ ̶u̶p̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶t̶r̶e̶t̶c̶h̶.̶ ̶D̶e̶ ̶L̶a̶u̶r̶a̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶r̶i̶c̶ ̶f̶a̶c̶t̶o̶r̶y̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶d̶o̶ ̶w̶h̶a̶t̶e̶v̶e̶r̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶t̶a̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶,̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶o̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶a̶l̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶D̶u̶c̶k̶s̶ ̶w̶a̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶o̶ ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶o̶v̶e̶r̶c̶o̶m̶e̶.̶
̶R̶o̶l̶o̶v̶i̶c̶h̶’̶s̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶l̶e̶a̶n̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶p̶a̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶p̶e̶o̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶m̶a̶y̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶u̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶P̶u̶l̶l̶m̶a̶n̶,̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶.̶ ̶R̶u̶n̶n̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶b̶a̶c̶k̶ ̶D̶e̶o̶n̶ ̶M̶c̶I̶n̶t̶o̶c̶h̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶v̶e̶r̶a̶g̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶y̶a̶r̶d̶s̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶c̶a̶r̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶3̶4̶ ̶a̶t̶t̶e̶m̶p̶t̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶w̶o̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶e̶i̶v̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶v̶e̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶0̶ ̶y̶a̶r̶d̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶.̶ ̶
W̶a̶z̶z̶u̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶g̶o̶ ̶f̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶t̶s̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶,̶ ̶w̶h̶i̶c̶h̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶u̶l̶t̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶o̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶p̶o̶i̶n̶t̶s̶.̶
W̶h̶y̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶n̶f̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶:̶
W̶h̶i̶l̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶i̶r̶ ̶o̶p̶p̶o̶n̶e̶n̶t̶s̶’̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶a̶r̶d̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶s̶t̶o̶p̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶C̶a̶r̶d̶i̶n̶a̶l̶’̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶b̶l̶e̶m̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶t̶r̶o̶l̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶o̶c̶k̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶m̶e̶t̶h̶o̶d̶i̶c̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶d̶r̶i̶v̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶.̶ ̶D̶a̶v̶i̶d̶ ̶S̶h̶a̶w̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶s̶e̶l̶f̶ ̶a̶n̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶t̶r̶o̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶l̶i̶n̶e̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶e̶a̶m̶ ̶s̶t̶r̶u̶g̶g̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶m̶o̶v̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶i̶n̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶u̶r̶t̶h̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶.̶ ̶Q̶u̶a̶r̶t̶e̶r̶b̶a̶c̶k̶ ̶D̶a̶v̶i̶d̶ ̶M̶i̶s̶s̶ ̶m̶i̶s̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶e̶a̶s̶o̶n̶-̶o̶p̶e̶n̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶d̶i̶d̶n̶’̶t̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶e̶n̶d̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶n̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶b̶a̶c̶k̶ ̶N̶a̶t̶h̶a̶n̶i̶e̶l̶ ̶P̶e̶a̶t̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶e̶a̶s̶i̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶i̶m̶e̶ ̶a̶g̶a̶i̶n̶s̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶v̶e̶r̶a̶g̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶5̶0̶0̶ ̶y̶a̶r̶d̶s̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶.̶
S̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶n̶f̶o̶r̶d̶’̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶c̶e̶ ̶a̶ ̶h̶a̶n̶d̶f̶u̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶e̶e̶-̶a̶n̶d̶-̶o̶u̶t̶s̶ ̶w̶h̶i̶l̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶B̶i̶g̶ ̶U̶g̶l̶i̶e̶s̶ ̶p̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ ̶a̶w̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶’̶s̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶l̶i̶n̶e̶,̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶c̶a̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶c̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶v̶i̶s̶i̶t̶o̶r̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶d̶e̶s̶p̶e̶r̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶s̶y̶n̶c̶.̶ ̶W̶i̶n̶n̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶e̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶t̶i̶m̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶s̶e̶s̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶k̶e̶e̶p̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶D̶e̶ ̶L̶a̶u̶r̶a̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶.̶
C̶o̶l̶o̶r̶a̶d̶o̶ ̶s̶e̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶b̶l̶u̶e̶p̶r̶i̶n̶t̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶b̶e̶a̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶n̶f̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶e̶n̶d̶.̶ ̶G̶e̶t̶ ̶a̶h̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶e̶a̶r̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶h̶o̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶B̶u̶f̶f̶s̶ ̶l̶e̶d̶ ̶2̶8̶-̶9̶ ̶m̶i̶d̶w̶a̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶o̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶r̶d̶ ̶q̶u̶a̶r̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶e̶n̶t̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶e̶e̶.̶ ̶S̶h̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶C̶o̶u̶g̶a̶r̶s̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶n̶e̶c̶t̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶w̶ ̶d̶e̶e̶p̶ ̶b̶a̶l̶l̶s̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶a̶l̶f̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶C̶a̶r̶d̶i̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶c̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶m̶o̶v̶e̶ ̶a̶w̶a̶y̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶i̶t̶s̶ ̶g̶r̶o̶u̶n̶d̶-̶a̶n̶d̶-̶p̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ ̶b̶r̶e̶a̶d̶-̶a̶n̶d̶-̶b̶u̶t̶t̶e̶r̶.̶ ̶A̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶o̶t̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶l̶e̶a̶n̶s̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶i̶l̶y̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶f̶a̶v̶o̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶v̶i̶s̶i̶t̶o̶r̶s̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶r̶t̶ ̶f̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶k̶e̶e̶p̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶p̶a̶c̶e̶.̶
P̶i̶c̶k̶:̶ ̶W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶M̶o̶n̶e̶y̶l̶i̶n̶e̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶+̶1̶0̶5̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶B̶e̶t̶M̶G̶M̶ ̶S̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶b̶o̶o̶k̶
BONUS PICK: Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Saturday, November 14, 2020 — 7:30 p.m. EST at Memorial Stadium
Bedlam is going to be a shootout. Both teams have strong offenses, both offenses will score a lot of points and either team could win. If you’re feeling frisky, the odds for the Cowboys to win this rivalry bout on the road provide unbelievable value. Who is to say that the No. 14 team in the country isn’t legit?
Pick: Oklahoma State Moneyline at +200 on BetMGM Sportsbook
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