College Football Lock Of The Week: Florida vs. LSU

by 9 months ago
florida vs lsu picks

Getty Image / Mary Holt

There are plenty of games each and every week on the college football slate that jump out at you making it that much harder to zero in on one game each Saturday. In this weekly series, we’ll circle one game, break down the matchup and lay out the evidence as to why this is the lock of the week.

Our lock of the week will always be a pick against the spread. While we’re not saying it’s wrong to bet over/unders or money lines, we’re just going the spread route.

Last week we went with a very under-the-radar game, but this week we’re circling the big one between Florida and LSU in Baton Rouge.

Last week’s pick (winner): Memphis (-15) at UL-Monroe, Memphis won 52-33

Florida (+12.5) @ LSU

No. 7 Florida: (6-0, 3-0 in the SEC)

No. 5 LSU: (5-0, 1-0 in the SEC)

Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST, Oct. 12 on ESPN

LSU giving up 12.5 points to a Florida team that played lights out last week against Auburn, especially on the defensive side of the ball, seems like a few too many.

The sheer fact that this is a night game at Tiger Stadium will keep plenty of people away, but we’re not running from it thanks to Dan Mullen and his Florida defense.

One of the biggest stories of this still relatively young college football season has been LSU’s offense and Joe Burrow putting up big-time numbers. There’s no denying just how great the offense has been as they sit second in the country in yards per game with 571, but Burrow and this offense haven’t seen a defense like the Gators possess.

LSU’s only test this year came in Week 2 at Texas which turned out to be a shootout with the Tigers winning 45-38, but Texas’ defense is abysmal. The Longhorns gave up 573 yards that night and they sit 104th in the nation giving up 442 yards per game.

Florida’s defense just held Auburn to 269 yards of offense including just 145 yards through the air this past weekend and the most points they’ve given up all season was in a 29-21 win at Kentucky Week 3. The Gators’ defense is the second-best in the SEC, statistically only behind Missouri, in yards given up per game with an average of 276 yards.

This game comes down to LSU’s nationally second-ranked passing attack and Florida’s 18th ranked pass defense.

Sure, Burrow has been phenomenal this year, but Florida’s defense has already been tested and answered the call while LSU’s offense hasn’t proven anything against even an above-average defense so going with Florida and the 12.5 points is the move here.

Keeping things simple looking at one side of the ball against the other points to Florida having the edge, and we’re all about keeping things simple.

With that being said, yes, LSU is going to put points on the board but their streak of five straight games with 42 or more points comes to a blistering stop this week thanks to the Florida defense and specifically its secondary.

This game screams a last-second field goal to win or a no more than touchdown win for the Tigers, which is all we’re after here as Florida would cover.


Line via Bovada

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