It’s Time to Go International as We Fly Off with the Week 8 NFL Picks
Survivor Pick of the Week:
N.Y. JETS over Green Bay
The Survivor pool slimmed down even further with Denver and New Orleans losing last week. We’ve got a lot of mediocre options staring us in the face this week. I haven’t felt like this since I spent a weekend at Purdue. (No wonder the motto at Harry’s is get ugly early.) The options you should be deciding between are Kansas City, Dallas, and the Jets. It seems careless to back Kitna in his first start in three years and I’d rather have my balls stapled to my leg than put thousands of dollars on the line with Matt Cassel. Instead I’ll go with the best team, the menacing defense, coming off the bye week, playing against a team littered with injuries on both sides of the ball. If things go wrong, you can find me at the Plaza acting like Charlie Sheen.
Tennessee, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore.
Locks of the Week:
N.Y. JETS -6.5 over Green Bay
You think both teams will get together on Saturday night to toast the downward spiral of Brett Favre’s career given that he f*cked both teams over? I’m sure Jenn Sterger would attend.
Denver +1 over SAN FRANCISCO
Not that the NFL fans in London were excited to see Alex Smith, but I’m sure they weren’t banking on seeing Troy Smith. While both teams have found numerous ways to lose games, any AFC team is worth at least three points when playing an NFC team (AFC teams are 17-12 vs. NFC teams this year and the AFC vs. NFC Super Bowl line has the AFC favored by three). Adding Troy Smith just makes it even better. It helps that Denver gets Goodman and Dawkins back in the secondary.
INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 over Houston
Two weeks ago I tried to back Manning in a night game and the Colts ended up blowing a large lead, but still pushed. That’s better than a loss, so I’ll go back to the well with Manning as he’s 9-4-2 ATS in regular-season games played at night in the last three seasons including a 4-0-2 ATS run in his last six night games. Plus, I’m sure Manning is thinking about that old thing called revenge!
Trap Game of the Week:
KANSAS CITY -7.5 over Buffalo
I’ve liked what the Chiefs have been doing this year, but something doesn’t feel right about this game. I could see it turning into an old-fashioned shootout, which is not something you would’ve expected before the season if I threw out names like Cassel and Fitzpatrick. It’s rather scary that the Chiefs are 1-6-1 in their last eight games as a favorite and more specifically 1-6-1 in their last eight games as a home favorite. If the Bills had won even one game this year, I’d probably be leaning their way.
Rest of the Picks:
Miami +1.5 over CINCINNATI
Cedric Benson averaged 24.5 carries a game last year in games where he played the whole game (the seven-carry effort against Pittsburgh where he got injured was excluded). The Bengals went 10-6. This year he’s only averaging 20.5 carries a game and the team is 2-5. It’s not a coincidence. That’s a direct effect of the T.O. signing. His teams, by the way, have a record of 8-15 over the last two seasons. Maybe things will pick up if Ochocinco celebrates his next touchdown like this.
DALLAS -6.5 over Jacksonville
The Jon Kitna era is back. He’s not riding Air Martz like he was in his Lions days, but he should be reasonably effective. Maybe they’ll actually run the ball now. I also don’t think there could be more negative trends for this game. The negativity basically reflects anyone’s feelings that paid for tickets to go see this sack-of-shit contest.
Washington +3 over DETROIT
Vegas must think rather highly of Detroit to make a one-win team a three-point favorite. I think it might take a week or so for Stafford to shake off the rust and the Redskins have a knack of winning close games.
ST. LOUIS -3 over Carolina
The Rams have covered their last three road games, so why not try for a fourth? Spag’s defense should have plenty of tricks up its sleeve for Matt Moore.
Tennessee +3.5 over SAN DIEGO
What the hell has happened to Chris Johnson? He’s dancing around the backfield looking to break the big run instead of busting his ass right through the hole like he did last year. He needs to get some of Derrick Rose’s kicks so he can get freaky like my lady pyramid.
OAKLAND -3 over Seattle
Here we have a classic 4 p.m. game. Man these teams out West really suck. If I could chose a push I would, but I’ll go with Oakland since Seattle usually plays worse football on the road.
Minnesota +6 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I was on board with the Favre train and then the old gunslinger showed up and shat the bed. Now we’re ready to bury his ass and his consecutive-game streak, so it’s a perfect time for him to bite us right on the ass. I won’t be fooled and neither will Captain Hindsight.
Tampa Bay +3 over ARIZONA
The “best team in the NFC” just does whatever it takes to win (except when it plays teams who will play in the playoffs, but don’t tell Raheem Morris). Here’s me thinking Arizona does not make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh -1 over NEW ORLEANS
The way the Saints are playing, it looks like they might go James Cameron on their chances for a Super Bowl sequel. Chances are Cameron actually gets to an Avatar sequel before the Saints celebrate again.
Last Week: 7-6-1
Season Record: 53-46-5