It’s Time to Hit Hard with the Week 7 NFL Picks
Survivor Pick of the Week:
BALTIMORE over Buffalo
If you’re thinking the Bills are due to win a game, you better think again. It’s not gonna happen here as a 13-point underdog on the road against this Ravens defense. Ray Lewis hasn’t been this fired up for some carnage since his murder charges were dropped 10 years ago. I don’t care if the Bills had an extra week to prepare. It ain’t happening.
Tennessee, Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh.
Locks of the Week:
KANSAS CITY (-6) over Jacksonville
To make myself feel better after the (lack of) success my locks have had so far this year, I decided to get drunk, take off my shirt, and dive into the East River for a swim at 5 a.m. No I’m sorry, that wasn’t me. That was Colts kicker Pat McAfee during his bye week, but I probably should’ve gone in with him. It’s time to improve and what better way than to back the frisky Chiefs against Todd Bouman. Yes that’s right, THE Todd Bouman! You know, the one who’s 38, has played for seven NFL teams, and just got signed off the street after being cut earlier in the year. You almost forget he started a couple games for the Saints back in ’05. Oh yeah, and he lost those games, too.
Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY
Minnesota, welcome back to the NFL. You actually look like a legitimate NFL team over the last six quarters. The Packers, however, have not been so fortunate. What the hell happened to this offense? It was supposed to be lights out but it only scored 33 points total in the last two weeks. Hell, the Lions scored 44 points in one game. At least we know Greg Jennings is still a talented motherf*cker when it comes to video games.
DENVER (-8) over Oakland
It took me a while to figure out what the third lock of the week was so I thought about randomly choosing one with a little help from Microsoft Excel. I went through the motions, but I couldn’t actually pull the trigger on randomizing the lock. That’s not why I’m here. I need to have a little faith and this week I’m taking the Broncos. Why, you ask? Because Tim Tebow plays for the Broncos and God is on his side. When looking for faith, look to the circ*mcising demigod who scored his first touchdown last week.
Trap Game of the Week:
Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI
I really had no idea what to do with this one. I bet the Steelers at 8-1 to win the Super Bowl a couple weeks ago because I think they’re the most complete team in football. Yet something about this game seems off. Miami has been pretty competitive in all their games this year and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be on Sunday. But when you look at their schedule, they’ve lost to two of the better teams in the stronger AFC conference and amassed their wins against two NFC teams and the lowly Bills. What’s to say that’s going to change this week?
Rest of the Picks:
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Cincinnati
I’ve flip-flopped on Atlanta over the course of the season and I’m almost ready to flip back to being negative after their performance in Philadelphia last week. The only thing stopping me is my continued distaste for this Bengals team. Since the Bengals are living up to my underachieving prediction, I’ll follow through with that again.
Washington (+3) over CHICAGO
The Bear offensive line hasn’t been able to handle any team with a pass rush so far this season. The Redskins have good enough corners to play single coverage on the Bears’ mediocre receivers. Expect the Redskins, in the top half of the league in sacks so far this season, to turn up the dial behind Coach Hays-lett and toss around Cutler, whose status with the ladies went downhill once he was seen on the sideline in an oversized T-shirt. Someone needs to teach him about slim-fit shirts.
TENNESSEE (-3) over Philadelphia
Kevin Kolb has one more week to shine before Michael Vick returns to the fray. Will that actually happen or will Andy Reid once again go back on his word? I have to think Vick regains the job, but anything’s possible right now. In the meantime, I expect Chris Johnson to finally break out with his first 200-yard game of the season. He’s due.
Cleveland (+14) over NEW ORLEANS
Colt McCoy didn't look half bad last week. I always liked his playmaking ability in college, but it was his smarts that impressed me last week. He didn't make nearly as many dumb throws as you'd have expected. I'm still not buying the Saints, so I expect an ugly game with a score a lot closer than it should be.
TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis
Seven weeks ago this game would've been at the bottom of your list to enjoy this weekend, but now it doesn't look half bad. I'm still trying to figure out what Tampa's game plan is on offense because every time I change the channel over to their game, Josh Freeman seems to be heaving long throws that look like jump balls. The Saint defense isn't exactly cut out of the mold of the '86 Bears, yet Tampa couldn't execute at all last week. Despite all that, I'm giving them one more week because St. Louis hasn't shown they can win on the road yet this year, including that thrashing to a comparable Lions team.
CAROLINA (+3) over San Francisco
Explain to me how a one-win team is a three-point road favorite. Jimmy Clausen isn’t under center anymore. Matt Moore, despite how poorly he played in the first two weeks, is competent enough to make the Panthers’ running game a factor. At least that’s what I’m telling myself…
BALTIMORE (-14) over Buffalo
Since I've already disclosed my thoughts on this game above, I want to enlighten the public with a lightly trafficked website: J.P. Losman's own page. Bills fans want to forget the day their team used a #1 pick on him as much as Losman wants to forget actually having this website. It doesn't look like it’s been updated in years. Going through it is actually kind of depressing.
SEATTLE (-6) over Arizona
I went back and forth on this game for a little while, but I ended up settling with the home team. Qwest Field is probably the hardest environment for any QB to deal with, let alone a rookie in his first road start. It also doesn't help that Max Hall never travelled to a tough environment in college like Oregon or LSU. Those games against Utah St. just don't cut the mustard.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over New England
I've handled the Chargers better than any other team this year when it comes to picking them against the spread. It's a very simple strategy: pick them at home and pick against them on the road. The only time I missed was when I went against that, so why stop now? And if you're going to tell me their WRs are injured, I'm pretty sure AG and JoePa could make noise against this Pats secondary.
N.Y. Giants (+3.5) over DALLAS
At what point does the world stop believing that the Cowboys are any good? On ESPN's Audibles this week, Herm Edwards was comparing them to a nice suit in a store window that you can't afford. The reaction out of Keyshawn, Dilfer, and Steve Young was one of confusion and bewilderment. That reaction to Herm's story was a better comparison than anything he threw out there. On to the game itself, two things stand out: The Cowboys have issues with strong pass rushes (check) and Romo hasn't really shown he can perform under pressure. Advantage: Giants, who always seem to play better as an underdog.
Last Week: 6-6-2
Season Record: 46-40-4