We’re Not Raising Arizona as We Bring You the Week 5 NFL Picks
Then you look at the other side and Sam Bradford was the winning QB despite completing only seven of his 21 passes. Part of it is that he lost his best receiver and doesn’t have much talent in the rest of the receiving group, but he was also throwing balls into the ground behind a terrible offensive line. This is the kind of game that sets football back five years.
The way I’ve been picking games lately has set me back five years. I usually get a nice start to the season, but I apologize for what I’ve been bringing to the table. At least I can hang my hat on my locks of the week because those are the games I feel the most confident about (and may or may not be playing if gambling was legal). Even if I’m not bringing it as well as I used to, it’s good to know Bruce Willis still is in the new Die Hard movie.
I forgot the shout-outs last week in the BroBible Pickem Challenge, so I’ll double them up this week. Congrats to James Sanderson and Ryan Quinn for their exploits in Week 4 and hugs and hand pounds go out to Tom K, Eric Putz, and Zachary Viskovich for bringing home the bacon in Week 3. We had a four way tie after Week 4 with the leaders being the aforementioned Tom, Eric, and James along with Jerry Rivera. Nice job, guys. You’ll look good in your Brash Brothers gear if you keep this up.
Locks of the Week:
Atlanta +3 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins have given up 24+ points in every game this year. That includes games against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, two teams who aren’t offensive juggernauts by any means. The Falcons come into town averaging 31 points a game, ranked third in the league, so they shouldn't have much issue reaching that plateau this week. Their defense has been surprisingly good this year, ranking 9th in points allowed. I love what RG3 is doing, but he needs some help from the other side of the ball before his team starts piling up wins.
Baltimore -4.5 over KANSAS CITY
Matt Cassel took the Chiefs to the playoffs back in 2010, only to face the mighty Ravens in the first round. The score in that game 30-7 in favor of the Ravens with the Chiefs turning the ball over five times. Since then, Cassel has regressed to the point where Kansas City really wishes it had a better backup QB than Brady Quinn to turn to. Colin Cowherd pointed out on the radio this week that the Chiefs have out-gained every opponent in yardage this season, but the turnovers are the reason they're losing games and they're a live underdog this week. Last time I checked, turnovers don't exactly just stop for no reason, especially against a Ravens defense that’s tied for 4th in the AFC in creating turnovers. You can’t ignore the 15 turnovers the Chiefs have had. You just can’t!
Denver +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
It’s not the same as the old school match-up when Peyton Manning played for the Colts, but this Broncos vs. Patriots game should still be entertaining because of the two QBs involved. New England’s had a pretty easy schedule so far with Baltimore being their only tough affair. The Broncos, meanwhile, have had to face two teams that are still undefeated as well as a likely playoff-bound Steelers’ group. They’re more battle-tested at this point of the season and Peyton seemed to find his stride last week. Anything more than a touchdown is too much. Now if only the Broncos could find an alternative jersey as cool as their in-town brethren, the Nuggets.
Trap Game of the Week:
PITTSBURGH -3 over Philadelphia
The Eagles haven't gotten to 3-1 with ease, but they've found a way to win their three games by a total of four points. Their pass rush caused all sorts of problems for the Giants last week and should create the same issues for a beat-up Steelers' offensive line. But the Steelers are coming off the bye week and have had some extra time to fix their line issues. They’re also extra motivated after their meltdown in Oakland before the bye.
Rest of the Picks:
Green Bay -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
I originally was on the Colts this week because of their likely motivation from head coach Chuck Pagano's leukemia diagnosis. Then news broke that cornerback Vontae Davis would miss the game, leaving the Colts with an incredibly weak set of corners against Green Bay's talented receivers. With Dwight Freeney being a game-time call, I have to side with Green Bay's likelihood of dropping 35 points this week.
Miami +4.5 over CINCINNATI
Dare I say the Dolphins are rather frisky? The Bengals are also giving up 28 points a game, so giving Miami more than a field goal seems like too much given Miami’s taken their last two opponents to overtime.
N.Y. GIANTS -10.5 over Cleveland
Usually the Giants don’t do well as big home favorites, but I think there will be a strong business-like approach after last week’s loss to the Eagles. The Browns are still missing shutdown corner Joe Haden, so Victor Cruz will have one of his bigger games of the year.
Chicago +4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Playing at home seems like a disadvantage to the Jaguars. They’ve played two good teams at home and lost by a combined 37 points. I’m just hoping the Bears don’t have a letdown after a great Monday Night Football showing.
SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 over Buffalo
As stated in yesterday’s survivor pick, I really don’t like Buffalo’s chances here. Twice Buffalo’s played teams with above average defenses and Ryan Fitzpatrick turned the ball over seven times combined in those two games. San Francisco is the best defense in the league, so good luck with that.
Tennessee +6 over MINNESOTA
While Jake Locker was the right decision for Tennessee moving forward, his inclusion in the lineup downgraded their offensive ability in the short term as he learned how the ways of the NFL. Matt Hasselbeck makes the team more competitive in the short term despite his deficiencies. Six points is a lot for Minnesota to give considering both their touchdowns last week were scored on special teams.
San Diego +4 over NEW ORLEANS
There’s nothing like an 0-4 team giving points at home, right? San Diego’s good enough on offense, despite what you saw in Week 3, to score almost at will against New Orleans. If one team can’t stop anyone on defense, how do not you expect this game to come down to the final possession?
Houston -7.5 over N.Y. JETS
Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Jeremy Kirley, Chaz Schilens, and Jeff Cumberland are your skill position players for the Jets this week. They’re looking more banged up than Nic Cage after a night in Vegas. The Texans are averaging 14 points allowed so far this season. The Jets will be lucky to get within four points of that.
This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 6-9