NBA Lock Of The Day: Circling The Pacers – Heat Matchup

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Look at us go, we’re on a winning streak after handing out winners on both Wednesday and Friday. We are very clearly onto something with our over/under point total picks and we’re going to ride that wave until it crashes.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat

The Pick: Over 220.5 (+140)

Tip-off: 8:00 PM EST

These two teams have been scoring in bunches since the season got back underway in the bubble. Indiana is averaging 114.6 points per game while Miami is averaging exactly one point less at 113.6 points per game.

Some may see these two average and immediately think ‘oh, well this is a sucker bet take the over here,’ but that’s what they want you to think. It’s easy to overthink these things, but we’re not going to do that here, the over is the play, especially with the +140 odds.

Yes, the Pacers may be without their main man T.J. Warren as he is listed as questionable for the contest, but that 220.5 point total is still low even if he is forced to take the night off with a foot injury. This looks like a spot where Malcolm Brogdon can step into the spotlight as he’s scored 25 and 24 points in each of his last two games for Indian. The Heat have the firepower to put up big-time numbers as well seeing as they lead the league in three-point field goal percentage.

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