**Editor’s Note: Kevin Dudzinki is ranked in the top 5% of all DFS players, according to Rotogrinders.com, and has made a killing on fantasy since he started in 2013. Learn more about Kev HERE and follow him on Twitter HERE.***
And we are back!
After a quick one week stop on the outside looking in, Justin Thomas stormed the field Sunday, coming back from four shots back, to take down the St. Jude Classic, and cash yet another winner for us.
The insane run for us in 2020 continues, but especially since the PGA tour returned from the covid break. Since the return, I’ve managed to pick 5 of the 8 winners so far, including 4 of the last 5. That’s an insane run.
If you bet $100 a week since the tour returned, you’d be up $1,216 in eight weeks. If you’ve been following since January when we began, at $100 a week, you’d be up a cool $2,237.
This week, we get our first Major of the year! The tour heads to Harding Park for the PGA Championship, a loaded field, and what should be a very tough test of golf.
The tour hasn’t played at Harding park since 2015, so there’s not a lot of course history to look at. I previewed the course, and it looks like it’s going to play long, and be penal from the rough. So I am looking for bombers who are fairly accurate. The course has been stretched out as well, so I am looking at some stats for guys who hit their long irons well, and can scramble to make pars when they do miss the greens.
Below is a refresher on how I am allocating my bets this week, and who I like to take down the PGA Championship.
As far as betting, I’ll keep track of the overall performance for the year each week. The important thing to understand is that betting on golf is hard. Most weeks we are going to lose, but one winning week, can make up for multiple losing weeks. I’m taking a long term approach, and hoping to finish the season up. As you will see, we are going to spread our money out to multiple players, and hopefully grind out a profit.
Each week, I am going to put one unit in play. That unit is going to be divided up between all the players I want to bet on. This unit can be whatever you feel comfortable losing in a week, but should remain consistent throughout the season. If you move the amount all over the place each week, your chances of profiting decrease quite a bit. With that being said, let’s take a look at who I’m targeting to take down this event.
Now we’ll take a look at players I have the most interest in using on DraftKings in their tournaments. In these articles, I am going to pick two players that I am the most interested in using, from three different tiers. $9,000 and up, $7500-$8900, and under $7500.
As the first major of the season, we get the most loaded field of the year. That means there are a lot of reasonably priced players.
Let’s take a look at who we should be building our DK lineups around this week
Justin Thomas $11,300
Our hero from last week, Thomas once again tops my model this week. Coming off a win so his form is great, JT is exceptional in every stat I am looking for. He’s one a PGA Championship before, and is coming in hot. I see no reason JT is not in contention to win again this week.
Xander Schauffele $10,000
Xander ranks second in my model, and has been in very good form since the tour returned. Xander is known as a “big game hunter” as well, as he seemingly always finds himself near the top of the leaderboard when major tournaments are said and done. Is this the week he finally breaks through?
Daniel Berger $8,800
For the first time this year, Daniel Berger ranks out near the top of my model. And what’s not to like? In his last seven tournaments, Berger has missed the cut once. In the other six, he has finished in the top ten each time, with five of them being top fives, and a win. Simply an elite run. I love him at this price again this week.
Adam Scott $7,800
This seems to be an obvious misprice by DraftKings to me. I understand Scott hasn’t played since the tour returned, but it’s rare to get someone with his talent at this price. He’s a great salary saver, so let’s hope he’s been practicing and keeping his game sharp. Because his potential at this price is very high.
Harris English $7,200
Our first salary saver this week is no stranger to the column. English consistently ranks reasonably high in my models, and is coming in playing well. He’s made the cut three tournaments in a row, finishing in the top 20 in all three. At this price, if he can do that again, we will be in good shape.
Brendan Steele $6,900
Steele also comes in good form, as he made the cut in his last three events as well. He finished 13th in a loaded field at Memorial, and sixth at the Traveler’s Championship. Those are great showings, and at this price, he really just has to make some birdies and make the cut. If he can manage to get in the top 20, we are looking at a very good start to the week.
Good luck this week, and see you at the top of the leaderboards!