Sucking For Luck, Plus the Week 8 NFL Picks

by 8 years ago

Replace Curtis Painter with Peyton Manning (#1 overall) and Matt Hasselbeck with Jake Locker (first rounder who will eventually get the job) and that’s 20 of 32 teams who have a first rounder at QB. Of those 20, 17 were drafted by the team they’re currently playing for. That shows you what teams are invested in.


I asked people to consider the above when trying to determine how much teams would be able to get for Andrew Luck if they wanted to trade out of the first pick in the 2012 draft. Maybe in 2011, teams won't feel as burdened to give their QBs the chance to make it, considering their contracts won't be for as much money, but they'll still give them a few years without giving up on them. Therefore, you really need to consider which teams would actually select Andrew Luck with the first pick if given the chance. As much as you want to think he's a sure thing, there really is no such thing as a sure thing.
Teams that would realistically draft Luck if they had the #1 overall pick are: Cleveland, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Miami, Oakland, San Francisco (despite Smith's turnaround), Seattle, and Washington. Teams that would consider it include Arizona (but they're invested in Kolb for the next few years with a big contract), Buffalo (Fitzpatrick is about to get $10 mil a year in an extension, so I doubt they’d want Luck), and Houston (just because Schaub hasn't shown worth, but I'm not convinced they'd 100% draft Luck).

Teams that wouldn’t draft Luck include: Philadelphia ($100 million invested in Vick), the Giants ($100 million invested in Eli), the Jets (Sanchez only in third year of rookie deal), and Tampa (not giving up on Freeman just yet despite the fact the OC doesn't have confidence in him enough to open up the offense). 

Drafting Luck, however, doesn't guarantee anything. We'll all acknowledge Peyton has been arguably the best QB of the last 10 years (Brady the other possibility), but he's only won the one title. It takes a lot of other pieces to win a Super Bowl. In 2011, you just need a QB with first-round pedigree to be able to win you those 3-4 playoff games when it matters (a la Ben and Eil) even if they aren't the best in the game.

Anyway, let's get on to the picks.
Survivor Pick of the Week:
BALTIMORE over Arizona
The Ravens obviously aren't as bad as they looked last week, but now you know they're a long way away from the Super Bowl. No team can win the Super Bowl after showing up and taking a dump on the 50-yard-line like Baltimore did last week. And it wasn't just your standard post-night-of-drinking dump. We're talking about a serious, full-colon-cleansing effort. That shit was brutal. Yet, they always look better offensively against real scrubby defenses and that's exactly what Arizona brings to the table.
Teams used: Arizona, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Green Bay, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, New Orleans
Locks of the Week:
Jacksonville +11 over HOUSTON
Blaine Gabbert isn't exactly looking like Cam Newton out there, but he's getting the job done. Last week's effort by Houston shouldn't allow you to forget how mediocre they looked during the two previous games. The Jags have done a nice job of covering large spreads this year, so I'll take the points.

New England -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
Take a closer look at Pittsburgh's wins and they're f*cking pathetic. Seattle, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona aren't exactly a murder's row. Only one of those teams is .500 or better. On the flip side, the Patriots own four wins against teams with the same criteria and should give Pittsburgh a whooping.

Washington +7 over BUFFALO
Toronto provides more of a home-field advantage for Buffalo than London (where streakers never stop) did for the Bucs, but not by much. The Redskins hold a major defensive advantage in this match-up, which is why they should be able to keep this within a touchdown.

Trap Game of the Week:

CAROLINA -3 over Minnesota
I'm all for backing Cam Newton against a mid-level defense, but Carolina's run defense scares me. Adrian Peterson has the opportunity to feast like a fat kid spending three hours at the CiCi's Pizza buffet line. Minnesota is worse off than Washington and the spread was similar last week, so I'm leaning towards Carolina for this one.

Rest of the Picks:

BALTIMORE -12.5 over Arizona
I already told you I think the Ravens are going to win big, so we’ll skip to the fun part. How can any Ravens fan be invested in Joe Flacco after what they saw last Monday? That performance was criminal. Only Tim Tebow looked worse at points last week, but he at least came back to win (albeit with God’s help).

N.Y. GIANTS -10 over Miami
It's like the Seattle game all over again. Yet, the Jets took on Miami at home, played about as poorly as you could play in the first half, and still won 24-6. If the Giants don't do the same, Tom Coughlin should be fired after the game. And yes, I'm dead serious.

New Orleans -14 over ST. LOUIS
How high could they have made this line before anyone actually wanted to touch the Rams? My guess is 18 points, but that still might've been a tough sell after the way these teams played last week. Unlike other lopsided efforts, however, we've learned that the Rams are actually that bad. They're averaging 9 f*cking points a week! 9!

Indianapolis +10 over TENNESSEE
As bad as Indianapolis got butchered last week, you could argue that the loss Tennessee suffered was much more embarrassing. We knew the Colts sucked. The Titans meanwhile were supposed to be competing for the division title. Their offense has looked more beat up than Halle Berry in “Monster's Ball” since Kenny Britt went down. The Colts will likely help them fix that, but 10 points is a lot to be giving up.

Detroit -3 over DENVER
The Lions' fall from grace shouldn't be so surprising after their miracle comebacks in prior weeks. This Sunday they'll take on 11 men and God. Ndomekun Suh would probably step on Tim Tebow's crotch just to get the opportunity to go one and one with God and that's exactly the kind of attitude you need in this situation. The Broncos’ defense should also cure any woes the Lions’ offense was suffering in the last two weeks. Maybe Calvin Johnson can celebrate a touchdown by Tebowing.

Cleveland +9.5 over San Francisco
It's hard not to appreciate what Jim Harbaugh is doing in San Francisco despite being in charge for less than a year and having Alex Smith under center. I, however, will try to get a good look at a T-bone by shoving my head up a Butcher's ass (wait, it was your bull…) before I'm ready to lay the 49ers as a double-digit favorite. This is also the last chance the Browns have to get me to back them for a while. Should they get blown out, I'll be riding the opposite side for the foreseeable future.

SEATTLE +2.5 over Cincinnati
At first you think that Andy Dalton has looked mighty impressive and should take the mediocre Seahawks by storm. But there’s something about the home-field advantage in Seattle that makes them better. It’s not worth figuring out, but it definitely exists.

PHILADELPHIA -3 over Dallas
These games can go either way and both teams have been all over the place, so this would never be a game worth wagering on. For the sake of picking a winner, I actually like the Eagles since they’ve fortified their offensive line and should be able to shut down the Cowboys’ passing game. (See that Philly fans, I actually picked you to win!)

KANSAS CITY +4 over San Diego
Something just ain’t right with the Chargers right now.

Last Week: 6-7

Overall Record: 55-45-3

Locks: 13-7-1

Survivor: 6-1

TAGSAndrew LuckbettingGamblingNFL