Tim Tebow Delivers Wins, Plus the Rest of the Week 11 NFL Picks

by 9 years ago

When the Broncos got the ball on their own four yard line with 5:54 to go last night, it didn’t seem like scoring was possible, let alone a touchdown. The Jets had shut down the Broncos' RBs all game, so it would be up to Tebow to do it with his arm, which we’ve seen isn’t the most likely scenario. Like usual though, Tebow upped the ante with a couple completed passes and a run in the first three plays. Now out of the shadow of their own endzone, Tebow used his legs to move the Broncos to midfield and then found Dante Rosario for an 18-yard gain.
After a couple rushing plays, the Broncos faced a 3rd and 4. The Broncos were in field goal position, so a running play made sense to not turn the ball over. The Jets sensed that and came on an all-out blitz. Of course safety Eric Smith was involved in this blitz and a high skill level has never been in his repertoire. Tebow read the blitz, moved to his left, and there went that man again. They only had scored three offensive points all game at the point, but they grabbed a touchdown when it mattered. (Of course Mark Sanchez was bad enough for another pick-six. Is it time for Brian Schottenheimer to get fired this week? I think so.) Whenever you want to get on the Tim Tebow bandwagon, he’ll wipe off a seat for you.

Locks of the Week:

Jacksonville +1 over CLEVELAND
If there's one thing I've gotten right in the last couple weeks, it’s that I've sold all my shares of the Cleveland Browns. They continue to show they're the second-worst team in the league. The Jaguars took care of the Colts on the road last week, so no reason to think they can't clean up the Browns too. Things have become a factory of sadness in “The Rock 'n' Roll Capital of the World.”

ST. LOUIS PK over Seattle
Seattle will have a nice letdown after their big win over the Ravens last week. The Rams' offense should look much better with Bradford getting a full week of reps. 

Tennessee +7 over ATLANTA
Last week's decision by Mike Smith to go for it on 4th down in overtime was terrible. That's the kind of call that gets you fired at the end of the season. The Falcons had just stopped the Saints on their final drives of regulation. Why not show confidence in your defense after that? And if you are dumb enough to go for it, at least change the play and set after the defense calls a timeout. I'm not sure how the Falcons are still overvalued after that, but they are.
CHICAGO -3.5 over San Diego
For shits and giggles, I'm throwing a fourth lock out there this week. Maybe Vegas doesn't think that highly of the Bears or maybe the public still thinks too highly of the Chargers. It's pretty obvious the Chargers are a disaster and a rising Bears team should be able to take ‘em down with their strong home field advantage.

Trap Game of the Week:
SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 over Arizona
It's really hard to bet a favorite with a large spread if they don't have a dominant offense. The 49ers, however, just keep chugging along and seem to be disposing of teams in a clinical fashion. Their ability to run the ball should open up play action opportunities against a defense that, in the words of Bart Scott, can't stop a nose bleed. John Skelton has had some magic in the last couple weeks, so the possibility of him taking advantage of a hung-over 49ers bunch is what's really holding me back.

Rest of the Picks:
MINNESOTA +1 over Oakland
Last week's effort by the Vikings is a write off. (“Do you even know what a write off is?” “No, but they do. And they're the ones writing it off.”) They'll be able to run the ball against the Raiders' porous run defense. They also won't have to be worried about being down by a large margin since Oakland isn't nearly as explosive offensively as the Packers.
Buffalo +1 over MIAMI
Think the Bills wish they had waited a couple of weeks to sign Fitzpatrick? The Bills have fallen on hard times, but this is a week for them to get back into the groove a little bit. The Dolphins don't play as well in front of their home crowd and will struggle to cover the Bills' receivers.

Cincinnati +7 over BALTIMORE
Joe Flacco is on pace to throw the sixth-most passing attempts in NFL history. There's no way that any coach with Ray Rice in his backfield should ever let that happen. Coach John Harbaugh needs a lesson from his brother Jim on how to play to your offense's strength. 

Dallas -7.5 over WASHINGTON
If DeMarco Murray's four-game stretch was extrapolated over a full season, he would have 3,500 yards and 40 TDs. Ok, I'm exaggerating a little bit (although it’s really a ridiculous pace of 2,404 yards), but that's how much he's impacted the Cowboy offense. As Matthew Berry says, the Redskins are well on their way to go 3-13 the hard way.

GREEN BAY -14 over Tampa Bay
Raheem Morris was too successful last year to look this incompetent this year. He has to realize his passing game is in shambles and he shouldn't ditch the run in games so quickly. The problem this week is the Bucs will have to match the Packers score for score and that won't be possible with a QB who can't throw accurately right now.
DETROIT -7 over Carolina
If the Lions have any chance of making the playoffs, they’ll need to find their form this Sunday. With games against the Packers and Saints up next, the Lions can’t afford to lose this one because they’ll likely slide right to .500. The urgency should push them over the top despite the lack of a running game.
N.Y. GIANTS -4 over Philadelphia
How bad is your coaching staff when they don’t adjust their offensive play calls when playing against a team whose QB played in your system a year prior? That’s exactly what happened last week when Kevin Kolb was calling out the plays for his Arizona teammates as the Eagles were running them. Blame Vick all you want for the team’s lack of success, but that situation falls right on the coach. That fat shit Andy Reid should f*cking quit on the spot for such incompetence.
NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Kansas City
The Tyler Palko Era begins in flames as Bellichick works his magic against the weak-armed QB. The Chiefs' defense has struggled to rush the passer this season, so Brady should have plenty of time to put up points for the Patriots.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-11

Overall Record: 72-72-3

Locks: 15-14-1