Time to Roll with the Dogs in the Week 5 NFL Picks
Survivor Pick of the Week:
INDIANAPOLIS over Kansas City
Survivor pools become a lot harder without double digit spreads, eh? We haven’t had too many big upsets so far this year for survivor pools, so maybe this is the week. I don’t like any of the bigger favorites to cover the spread, so this was a hard choice. When in doubt, Peyton Manning never seems like a bad choice. It also doesn’t hurt that I’m benefiting by having Matt Cassel play on the road. I doubt the Colts start the season 2-3, so I’m going to ride with them here.
Tennessee, Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans
Locks of the Week:
Denver +7 over BALTIMORE
Dare I say I’m on the Kyle Orton bandwagon? I just traded for him in one of my fantasy leagues and I never thought I’d be an Orton owner. I guess I have faith in what Josh McDaniels brings to the table. If he made something out of Matt Cassel for a year, maybe he knows what he’s doing. The Ravens are coming off an emotional game against the Steelers and are facing a letdown game. Their secondary can be exposed and Kyle Orton’s going to make that happen. Now excuse me while I rip a couple shots of Jack Daniels in the kitchen to calm my nerves…
Tennessee +7 over DALLAS
Only in the world of public money could a team with a losing record be a seven-point favorite this late in the season. The Titans are the most physical team in the league and have been accused of playing dirty in back-to-back weeks. That’s not a good sign for a Cowboy offensive line that lacks the talent surrounding it at the skill positions.
Green Bay -3 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins won last week despite looking like dog shit on offense. Washington also has allowed the second-most passing yards per game of any NFL team. That’s not the best thing to be bringing to the table against the explosive Packer offense.
Trap Game of the Week:
Tampa Bay +7 over CINCINNATI
Tampa Bay’s winning record might be a farce given their two wins were against two crummy teams and their only credible opponent, the Steelers, ran them off the field. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has shown they’re not ready to compete at the highest level as long as their QB is throwing a Kenny Powers Mexican League fastball 10 mph slower than he used to. When in doubt, take the points.
Rest of the Picks:
HOUSTON -3 over N.Y. Giants
Last week showed that you can always count on the Giants to show some life just when you think they have none left. Still, something's fishy about this spread. The Texans have clearly shown they're a formidable team this year, yet this game would be a pick-em on a neutral field? I know they're missing their starting left tackle, but this is a Giants team who almost forgot where the quarterback stood until last week. Plus, hasn't the AFC generally shown its dominance over the NFC through four weeks?
St. Louis +3 over DETROIT
How about that Sam Bradford? I also miss having Spagnuolo coordinating the Giants defense. That guy really knows how to coach ‘em up. The Rams haven’t given up more than 17 points in any game yet this year. I almost locked this game up, but then I realized I’d be doing that with a rookie quarterback on the road and I wasn’t ready to make that leap yet.
BUFFALO +1.5 over Jacksonville
This week’s version of the Toilet Bowl actually got a lift after the Jags won their second game of the season last week. The Bills are moving in the right direction by jettisoning Marshawn Lynch to clear up their RB situation a little. This may be the only chance the Bills have to win a game this year. The women of Buffalo should band together and go on sex strike until the team wins. Then again, I'm not too sure what Buffalo women are bringing to the table in the first place, so doing that might not matter much. Maybe this would have more influence if we were talking about Jacksonville.
Chicago +1 over CAROLINA
The Panthers can do one thing offensively right now and that’s run the football. The Bears have done a solid job stopping the run, so I’d really like to see how successful Jimmy Claussen can be throwing to the likes of Brandon Lefell and David Gettis. If you haven’t heard of Gettis, he’s a rookie from that offensive juggernaut named Baylor University. Yikes! I’ll take my chances with the better defense and the veteran quarterback.
Kansas City +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Chiefs have shown the ability to run the ball and play feisty defense through two weeks. That eventually happens when your first-round pick is in the first 10 picks year after year. The Colts are coming off a questionable road performance against Jacksonville and should be fired up to take down the league's final unbeaten team. The K.C. running game will keep it in the game, but eventually a Cassel mistake will let Indy prevail.
Atlanta -3 over CLEVELAND
The Falcons sure as hell didn't make it pretty last week, but at least they came out with a win. They've also been averaging at least two turnovers forced a game and now get to face turnover-prone QB Jake Delhomme. Browns CB Eric Wright has gotten lit up in back-to-back weeks by Anquan Boldin and Terrell Owens. Enter Roddy White, currently playing better than any WR in the league, stage right. Sounds like a recipe for success to me.
ARIZONA +7 over New Orleans
It didn't take long for Max Hall to take over as the starting quarterback, as predicted on this site. Playing better than Derek Anderson won't be hard, but Hall needs to focus on making sure Larry Fitzgerald gets the football. The Saints have looked hungover to start the year and are 1-3 against the spread, although that only win was in a game where the spread rose to a point and the Saints didn’t cover for some people. The line still suggests heavy public money on New Orleans, so I'll go the other way.
OAKLAND +6.5 over San Diego
The Chargers have lost both their road games this season and they were favored in both games. If you can’t beat the Seahawks and the Chiefs on the road, what makes me think you can cover seven points against the frisky Raiders.
SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 over Philadelphia
Rather than make a joke about how the men of San Francisco are going on a sex strike until the 49ers win a game, I’ll point out that no one outside of these two cities (and maybe Frank Gore owners) will be watching the game because of the playoff baseball that will be on. Hell, people in San Fran would probably be watching the Giants game instead. NBC wishes they could flex out of this one, but unfortunately their ratings will suffer as the 49ers pull out their first victory of the season.
N.Y. JETS -4 over MINNESOTA
There really aren't many storylines to talk about with this game. I really tried fishing for some news on either team, but all I was able to find was a Randy Moss trade, Brett Favre's return to NYC, and some cock shots Brett sent former Jets employee Jenn Sterger. (I wonder when ESPN will actually pick up the Favre story given their constant love for him, as my friends at RexQB.com point out.) Sounds like a pretty dull week to me. Give me the surprisingly drama-free Jets and their newly found high-powered aerial attack against a mediocre Vikings secondary.
Last Week: 8-6
Season Record: 33-27-2
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