No Pomp and Circumstance in The Week 5 NFL Picks

by 9 years ago

Survivor Pick of the Week:

N.Y. GIANTS over Seattle

On paper, the Giants are the simple pick of the week. You can’t trust New England despite being nine-point favorites at home to the Jets because of what happened in last year’s playoffs, the Pats’ leaky pass defense, and the Jets being motivated after their recent 2 game losing. The Raiders are too frisky to chance using Houston as a seven-point favorite at home. Road teams are always a tenuous option, which means the Saints aren’t an easy choice despite being a six-point favorite at Carolina. And how safe would you feel taking the Lions as a six-point favorite in a divisional game against the Bears after they just put themselves in back-to-back twenty point deficits.

This brings us back to the Giants, who are nine-point home favorites against Seattle. It’s the perfect storm with the West Coast team coming east for the early start. Seattle’s offensive ineptitude this season should play right into the Giants hands and the Seahawks haven’t exactly been playing good defense either. But any Giants fan can tell you they wouldn’t be extremely confident in the win given the chances history of bad losses as a home favorite. Eli Manning could easily commit four turnovers, two that are returned for touchdowns, and Seattle could somehow come out of this the winner. I guess that’s the chance we take in survivor pools…

Locks of the Week:

Green Bay -4 over ATLANTA
Everyone should remember last year’s divisional round game where the Packers absolutely destroyed the Falcons. The Falcons reacted during the offseason by improving their ability to score in a shootout with the drafting of Julio Jones. That’s nice and all, but you still need to come up with stops. Besides, wouldn’t you still take Green Bay’s offense over Atlanta’s, which now includes the second coming of Eddie George in Michael Turner. (And that’s not good Eddie George. That’s the slow and old Eddie George who was amassing three yards a carry at the end of his career.)

Oakland +7 over HOUSTON
Dare I say the Raiders are starting to look respectable these days? Their pass defense is a weakness, but Houston will struggle to attack it without Andre Johnson. The Texans are also in the bottom half of rushing yards allowed, so expect the Raiders to get the ground game going and keep this within a touchdown.

CAROLINA +5.5 over New Orleans
The Panthers proved last week that they can cover a healthy spread with a backdoor cover. They’ll look to do that again this week against a Saints team that hasn’t exactly looked like a juggernaut through the last three weeks. In Cam we trust.

Trap Game of the Week:

MINNESOTA -3 over Arizona
Any time you back Leslie Frazier, you’re putting your faith in the least capable man in the coaching profession. If that’s not enough to put you in a trap, I don’t know that is. I just think we’re due for one of those ridiculous Adrian Peterson performances and even McNabb could look good against this Cardinals’ secondary.

Rest of the Picks:

N.Y. GIANTS -9 over Seattle
On paper this seems like a blowout, but it can’t be a lock as long as the Giants are involved.

Kansas City +2 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s a shame the Colts can’t drive down the highway to Notre Dame and pick up a few offensive linemen to help out. Their unit is so banged up right now that practically every street free agent’s representative is getting a call. It looks like the Chiefs are actually banding together with all the injuries at least most of their defense is still intact.

PITTSBURGH -3.5 over Tennessee
This is the game that will determine the Steelers season. If they lose, they’re not making the playoffs. If they win, it’ll help push them towards a playoff push. The offensive line is extremely decimated, but I have to think the leadership of the team will bring them across the finish line.

Cincinnati +2.5 over JACKSONVILLE
Thanks to everyone who thought taking the Bengals over the Bills last week was a terrible pick. Hopefully you think this is a terrible pick as well.

Philadelphia +1.5 over Buffalo
What the f*ck was Ronnie Brown thinking when he attempted to pass the ball upon being stuffed at the goal line last week? We haven’t seen such a bonehead play since Leon Lett. Both teams have strong offenses and weak defenses, but at least the Eagles have some semblance of a pass defense.

Tampa Bay -1 over SAN FRANCISCO
Both of these teams have been winning ugly, but the disparity between the two QBs is quite obvious. When in doubt, always bet against the NFC West.

DENVER +4 over San Diego
The Chargers are dealing with numerous injuries right now and have had issues covering the spread so far this year. Last week they were gifted with a cover once Matt Moore got involved. At least we know Orton is somewhat capable. The bye can’t come quick enough for San Diego.

N.Y. Jets +9 over NEW ENGLAND
Despite the Jets struggles, their pass defense is the second best in the league. With New England’s defense allowing any offense to look good, maybe the Jets will take off this week with the return of the “ground and pound” attack.

DETROIT -7 over Chicago
This line is probably inflated by a couple points after the Lions put together back-to-back comeback wins. That doesn’t matter to me. The crowd in Detroit is going to be going nuts on Monday night and the Bears can’t even execute back flips properly.

Last Week: 9-7
Overall Record: 32-31-1
Locks: 7-4-1
Survivor: 4-0