WGC-Mexico Championship Preview, 3 Best Value Picks

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The first WGC event of 2020 has arrived as a number of the Top 20 players in the world travel South for the WGC-Mexico Championship just outside of Mexico City.

Defending champion Dustin Johnson headlines the field with the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, and last week’s winner Adam Scott also teeing it up this week.

DJ won last year’s event by five shots at 21-under with McIlroy finishing second at 16-under; the next closest score was 11-under which shows just how dominant Johnson was a year ago. Remember, there is no cut this week.

The Course

Club de Golf Chapultepec is a Par 71 track that stretches to 7,345 yards, but it will play much shorter than that due to the altitude in Mexico City. All three Par 5’s this week will read at least 575 yards on the scorecard, but are easily reachable in two for pretty much every player in the field due to the altitude effects.

It’s a nice course to come to for those that played at Riviera last week as players will see kikuyu grass and poa annua/bentgrass greens for the second week in a row.

The course is also tree-lined and players can find some serious trouble off the tee if they don’t keep it in-play so it does create an interesting scenario for players to pull driver and really take advantage of the ball flying further or keeping it in the fairway with a shorter club off the tee.

There isn’t anything particularly tricky about this course, but players can get creative taking on some of the doglegs with the big stick.

Key Stats: strokes gained: approach, Par 4 birdies or better average, approach distance from 125-150 yards

Last week’s picks for Genesis: Ryan Moore (T-30), Luke List (T-30) and Brooks Koepka (T-43)

Best Value Betting Picks

Bryson DeChambeau

Odds: 30-1

The Mad Scientist put together a rather sneaky T-5 finish at Riviera last week and is certainly worth a shout here given that recent form.

DeChambeau enters the week ranked T-16 in Par 4 scoring and while he’s just T-113th on Tour in strokes gained: approach, he finished 12th in the field in that same statistic a week ago at the Genesis. His around the green game was solid last week as well finishing T-8 in strokes gained: around the green.

He struggled here a year ago finishing T-67, but don’t let that shy you away. He’ll get to mess around with a lot numbers in his head as well with the altitude changes at the course, so that should make him very happy.

Patrick Reed

Odds: 45-1

Reed may have finished T-51 last week at Riviera and T-88 in Saudi in early February, but he’s also got three Top 10’s including a T-2 finish at Sentry Tournament of Champions this season as well.

The elite short game has been there for most of the season, but it’s been his off the tee game that’s held him back a bit as he ranks 165th on Tour in driving accuracy. With the ability to take less than driver on a number of holes this week, Reed should be able to find a few more fairways which is always a positive for a guy that’s so strong on and around the greens. He ranks second on Tour in Par 4 birdie or better percentage.

Reed finished T-14 here last year.

Brandt Snedeker

Odds: 70-1

Sneds took last week off after missing back-to-back cuts at Pebble Beach and the Waste Management, but prior to his two bad weeks, he had a T-3 finish at the Farmers and a T-12 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s been streaky over the last couple of months or so and this seems like a spot where he should get back to playing solid golf.

He’s still one of the best putters on the planet and if he can keep the ball in play off the tee he should find success here. Snedeker is also the best scrambler on Tour heading into this week, which never hurts.

The last time he played in this event was in 2017 when he finished T-7.