Will AP #1 Oregon or BCS #1 Auburn Fall? Can MSU and Mizzou Stay Undefeated?
What the Top 5 Are Doing
#1 Auburn -7 over OLE MISS*
Can the #1 really go down in four consecutive weeks? Auburn isn’t facing nearly as stern a test this week as ‘Bama, OSU, and Oklahoma did the past three weeks and there isn’t much trap-game potential here for them ahead of next week’s date with Chattanooga. Still, Ole Miss has had a habit of keeping it close in their big games this year, so it’s not a shock to see the spread within 10 points. I still like Auburn here, but it’s not a slam dunk.
#2 Oregon -7 over USC
Another tough one here. We know USC can score enough to stay in it, but it’s hard to figure out how they are going to stop Oregon’s offense. Most of the books have this total at 71 right now so clearly they don’t think there’s going to be a lot of defense in this one either. With that much scoring, if you think Oregon’s winning, it’s pretty hard to consider taking USC and the points. If your book allows you to buy points off of a key number (3, 7, 10, etc.) this is a good spot to buy yourself a half point.
#3 Boise State 49 – Louisiana Tech 20
Yes, the #3 team in the nation played a Tuesday night game this week.
UNLV +35 over #4 TCU
At 4-4 ATS TCU continues their streak of betting unpredictability. With undefeated Utah on deck for TCU next week, I’ll take the points here and hope they get caught looking ahead.
#18 IOWA -7 over #5 Michigan State
Right now Bodog has Michigan State +7 (-130) and the line isn’t really moving much. I think that’s a decent number, but the associated money line is obviously horrendous if you’re backing MSU. I like Iowa in the game, but it’s tough to give away a full TD here given Iowa’s performances against the top 25. It’s likely a stay away for me betting wise, but I’ll definitely be watching as Michigan State has a yellow brick road to a perfect season if they can get past the Hawkeyes this week.
Games of Note
#14 NEBRASKA -7.5 over #6 Missouri*
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen two undefeated major conference teams each giving away a TD this late in the season, but that’s college football in 2010. This is a tough spot for Missouri having to follow up the huge home win against Oklahoma with a tough road game in Lincoln. For my money, Nebraska has looked like the class of the Big 12 North this year and should be able to end Missouri’s Cinderella run this weekend.
Florida +3 over Georgia
Another -130 money line here if you want to bet the Gators as 3-point dogs. I can’t recall ever being less excited about the Cocktail Party. The “Fire Addazio” talk has reached a fever pitch following the disastrous loss to SEC West punching bag Mississippi State and it’s hard to argue with the logic. The Gator offense has been slipping ever since the departure of Dan Mullen and has gone into a full-on nose dive in 2010, ranking 82nd in passing, 75th in rushing and 62nd in points scored. Given the level of talent on this team, that is beyond absurd. Addazio is a great recruiter and position coach, but he seems to have no feel at all for the flow of the game and is bizarrely committed to forcing a certain style of offense on a quarterback who clearly isn’t suited for it. Eerie parallel’s to FSU’s situation with Jeff Bowden.
TEXAS -7.5 over #25 Baylor*
You really have to break out the history books to figure out the last time an unranked Texas team squared off against a ranked Baylor. Betting on Texas hasn’t exactly been profitable this year (2-5), but they’re far more talented than Baylor and should be able to bounce back here at home as long as they figure out how to stop committing so many turnovers.
Michigan -3 over PENN STATE
Given Matt McGloin’s dismal performance in relief of an injured Robert Bolden last week, it’s hard to see Penn State matching points with Michigan this week. Both teams have been pretty bad ATS this year, but Michigan has a slight edge in that category and a slight edge in this game. I’m keeping the bet small due to the Happy Valley night-game factor.
#13 Stanford -7.5 over WASHINGTON
A game of note only because we get to see two of the most highly touted NFL QB prospects square off vying for the privilege of playing QB for the Buffalo Bills. Andrew Luck has lived up to expectations for the most part while Locker’s stock has been somewhat eroded in recent weeks. I’m not sure how I’d feel about my team drafting him. A top college QB should have a QB rating over 100, right?
Money Plays: 2-1
Money Plays: 23-23