Let’s not kid ourselves. The running back position is beat to shit. Mark Ingram was the latest casualty. Look at the top 10 projected RBS on most sites this week and you’ll notice that the names aren’t exactly were when we started the season. Did you think you’d be hitching your wagon to Doug Martin, Thomas Rawls, DeAngelo Williams, David Johnson, and Jonathan Stewart? Me neither. It’s ridiculous how RBs have sustained injuries this year. Maybe things will be different next year, but I’m sure people will be drafting receivers much earlier than they did this year if they remember anything. Those are the only guys who stay on the field until the end of the season. Now that the RBs aren’t getting paid and aren’t staying on the field you’d think the union would try to help them out in some respect. That’s what a union is for after all, right?
Below is a list of guys I’m focused on for one reason or another this week. They’re especially important in daily fantasy sports (DFS) leagues like DraftKings. If you’re curious about guys you don’t see listed here, you can always find me on Twitter (@MrT_BroBible) to ask questions, but remember to mention league specifics like PPR.
You Know Who You Should Start?
Jameis Winston (QB – Tampa Bay)
The rule of thumb this fantasy season is to start the quarterback who plays against New Orleans. It’s pretty foolproof actually. The Saints allow the most points to fantasy quarterbacks and it’s not even close. They allow four more points to fantasy quarterbacks than any other team. Brian Hoyer is the only quarterback who scored less than 17 points against New Orleans since Week 5 and that was because his team took such a big lead that they didn’t need to keep scoring. He still put up 14 points. Not a bad floor to work with this Sunday when the average this season is 24.2 points.
Shaun Draughn (RB – San Francisco)
As mentioned above, our RB situation is terrible. I never thought I’d be telling you to start Draughn, but here we are. Draughn has scored 7 points or more in all of his starts because he stays on the field all the time. San Francisco has no one else they trust, so they’re giving the rock to a midseason pickup as much as they can. You can’t argue with what Draughn can give you on his 18 touches a week in such a toxic environment. The Browns have given up double-digit points to RBs in all but two games this year, so why not roll the dice with Draughn again.
T.J. Yeldon (RB – Jacksonville)
Sometimes the Jaguars forget they have a first round pick playing running back. For some reason they neglected to use him in the red zone during the middle of the season, but allowed Yeldon to run it in from one yard away in Week 13. There’s more where that came from against Indianapolis this weekend. The Colts have not solved opponents running games this year allowing 85 or more yards to RBs in all but 1 games since Week 6. Yeldon is also a factor out of the backfield as well. There will be a touchdown for him this week as the Colts have given up 12 touchdowns to RBs in their 13 games. Mark my words.
Doug Baldwin (WR – Seattle)
Maybe this is seen as chasing points, but Baldwin has three major things going for him. For starters, Jimmy Graham’s injury has left targets to go around. Then you have the fact that Russell Wilson has stepped his game up in recent weeks. Finally you have Seattle playing Baltimore this week and the Ravens have given up the fifth most points to receivers this week. Things will continue to go Baldwin’s way.
John Brown (WR – Arizona)
The Vikings defense was playing above its head for weeks, but things are looking even worse now. Terrance Newman is going to be in the slot against Brown on Thursday night and maybe you’re wondering what that means. The good news for Minnesota is that Newman once ran a 4.37 40-yard dash. The bad news? He’s now 37. His old legs will not be able to keep up with the spry Brown anymore as he sprints down the field for another big day.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE – Tampa Bay)
It’s still kind of confusing why ASJ wasn’t back on the field when he says he was ready to go. He came back last week and took in six targets in limited work. He got through the game in one piece, which means he should kill it on Sunday against the Saints. New Orleans has given up 10 touchdowns tight ends this year. If that’s not enough for you, how about the 1,016 yards they’ve given up to the position as well. That’s a good 89 yards more than any other team in the league and 368 more than the league average. ASJ can help his QB shine on gameday.
You Know Who You Should Sit?
Derek Carr (QB – Oakland)
The Broncos are back to playing their menacing defense and that’s bad news for opposing quarterbacks. It doesn’t help the opposing team that Brock Osweilier isn’t turning the ball over like Peyton Manning did. As the Broncos reduce possessions with play calling focused on running the football, the opportunities for quarterbacks to thrive are few and far between. The opposite of New Orleans, Denver is holding opposing quarterbacks to 10.5 points per game, 2.5 points less than the next stingiest defense. As good as Derek Carr has been this year, you can’t expect him to thrive in a road game against this opposition. There are always better alternatives than a QB in a tough spot.
Charcandrick West & Spencer Ware (RBs – Kansas City)
It’s a real shame Kansas City has shifted over to this committee approach because both West and Ware did really well when they were the solo act in the backfield. The committee has killed fantasy owners because they’d rather the Chiefs choose one and not split the work. I know the Chargers are terrible against the run, but are you going to feel good about going with West or Ware this week? I know I don’t. Ware gets the red zone work, so he has a slight edge, but neither back is worth more than a casual flex look if you’re unable to fill it elsewhere.
Danny Woodhead (RB – San Diego)
For some reason San Diego has gone away from Danny Woodhead and no one is sure why. Woodhead had four double-digit games by Week 9, but has disappeared after the bye. He obviously meant more in PPR leagues, but he was still a factor. Now he’s worthless, putting up a total of six points over the last three games. Hopefully you’re not still holding out hope.
Julio Jones (WR – Atlanta)
Maybe there’s some narrative street to Julio Jones demanding the ball more in the red zone and seeing it this weekend against Carolina, but facts are facts. Josh Norman turned Julio into WR34 and W37 last year in their two games against each other. Norman has looked better this year than last year. How are you going to start Julio Jones with the season on the line? I know I’m avoiding it whenever possible. Obviously you’re not going to start someone like Jordan Matthews over him because Matthews is terrible, but don’t think twice when considering names like those two mentioned above plus Vincent Jackson, Desean Jackson, and Brandon LaFell.
Kamar Aiken (WR – Baltimore)
Like with Julio, Aiken faces a matchup problem this week. With no one on the roster worth a damn, you can bet Richard Sherman will be all over Aiken this week. Throw in the fact that Jimmy Claussen might be his quarterback this weekend and this is a situation to avoid at all costs.
Antonio Gates (TE – San Diego)
Until last week the Chiefs hadn’t given up a double-digit scoring game to a fantasy TE. In fact they had held TEs under 4 fantasy points in all but three games in their first 11. They’ll bounce back this week as they focus all their coverage on Gates because San Diego’s receiving core is beat to shit with Stevie Johnson and Dontrelle Inman both banged up.