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A mysterious Polymarket user made a ton of money betting on Nicolas Maduro’s sudden downfall.
On Saturday night, the United States captured the Venezuelan President in a covert operation directed by President Trump.
“Last night and early today, at my direction, the United States armed forces conducted an extraordinary military operation in the capital of Venezuela. … It was an operation against a heavily fortified military fortress in the heart of Caracas to bring outlaw dictator Nicolás Maduro to justice,” Trump told reporters at a press conference.
Hours after Maduro’s arrest, Polymarket users detected unusual betting activity on the app from a new user.
Some war related insider trading? A brand new account in polymarket, only invested in US going to war with Venezuela and Maduro out by January 31. Up 13k so far, was spending thousands on Maduro out at bargain prices as recently as 4 hours ago. Now it’s at .50. pic.twitter.com/GLnfvAfEZc
— tyson brody (@tysonbrody) January 3, 2026
The user eventually made a $400k profit overnight.
The account, which was created on December 27, has only bet on two things: the U.S. invading Venezuela, and its president, Nicolás Maduro, being forced out of leadership by January 31. The user bet $35,000 when the market estimated the probability of intervention in Venezuela at only 6 percent.
Thanks to their very lucky bets, they made over $400,000 in less than a day.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026
Holy cow.
Yesterday, a new account on Polymarket made a massive bet that Maduro would be out of office by January 31st.
Today, the United States carried out strikes on Venezuela and captured Maduro.
The trader has now made over $400K.
Insider or lucky? pic.twitter.com/dHqThzccuB
— Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) January 3, 2026