12 College Football Teams In The Top 25 Most Likely To Lose In Week 13

The 2024 college football season has officially hit the home stretch now that most teams in the country only have a couple of games left on the schedule, and there are plenty of schools that enter Week 13 in the Top 25  facing some pretty stiff competition.

Week 13 of the college football season features two games between teams in the Top 25 and a slew of others where ranked squads won’t want to underestimate the opponents they’re facing off against with the end of the regular season on the horizon.

Here’s a closer look at the teams who have a realistic shot of being handed an L when everything is said and done.

#2 Ohio State

Do I think Ohio State will actually end up losing to Indiana? No, but I do think we’re going to be treated to a much tighter contest than the 13.5-point spread favoring the Buckeyes would suggest.

Indiana’s schedule has not exactly been filled with national powerhouses, but they’ve also beaten almost every single one of their opponents in pretty decisive fashion. Their performance against Michigan last weekend is obviously a cause for concern, but there’s a reason the Hoosiers head into this showdown sitting at 10-0.

Both Ohio State and Indiana have two of the best defenses in the country, so the Hoosiers will need to keep playing up to that standard while hoping a Kurtis Rourke-led offense that’s scored the third-most points this season will be able to overcome a formidable Buckeyes D.

It’s a tall task, but I’m not counting them out.

#5 Indiana

I sort of glossed over the uphill battle Indiana is facing against an Ohio State defense that’s tied with Army for points allowed and has only surrendered 17 points or more two times in the past two seasons.

The Hoosiers have more than held their own on both sides of the ball so far, but they haven’t faced an opponent that comes close to matching the level of talent they’re going to be dealing with.

At the end of the day, there’s a reason the Buckeyes are favored by almost two scores, and it’s certainly their game to lose.

#9 Ole Miss

Ole Miss is currently listed as a 10-point favorite heading into its trip to The Swamp, but they’d be foolish to underestimate a Florida team that’s probably better than its 5-5 record would suggest.

The Gators officially dashed LSU’s admittedly slim College Football Playoff hopes with a win last week, and while they looked absolutely lost against Texas, they did give Georgia a run for their money before the Bulldogs ultimately pulled away to secure the win.

Florida has had trouble stopping top-tier quarterbacks this season, and if they’re unable to contain Jaxson Dart, it’s going to be a long day.

An upset is going to hinge on their ability to put some pressure on the QB, get a solid performance from DJ Lagway, and some help from an Ole Miss defense that showed it can be vulnerable against LSU and Arkansas.

#13 SMU

SMU got a bit of a scare from a Boston College team that managed to hang with the Mustangs with a QB who hadn’t started a single game for the Eagles but held his own in a 38-28 loss that was closer than the final score would indicate.

They’re still 10-point favorites to beat Virginia, but the BC showdown was just the latest game where they had a fair amount of trouble with an opponent they really had no business losing to on paper.

The Cavaliers will need to win the battle in the trenches to get their running game going on the back of Xavier Brown while avoiding the turnovers and penalties that have been particularly costly this season.

#14 BYU

BYU showed a number of flaws on offense in its loss to Kansas, as QB Jake Retzlaff had a very underwhelming game and the Cougars struggled to capitalize on drives where they managed to end up in the red zone.

If we’re treated to a similarly anemic performance against an Arizona State team with a two-pronged offense centered around QB Sam Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo, BYU could end up with its second straight loss.

#15 Texas A&M

I assumed Texas A&M would be a pretty heavy favorite against an Auburn team that’s had a pretty dismal season, but the Tigers are only 2.5-point underdogs at home.

All signs point to this being all about Auburn’s ability to establish the run early on and keep pounding away to open up some opportunities in the air.

The Aggies have also had issues with penalties this season, and the Tigers will be hoping they keep shooting themselves in the foot on that front while continuing to keep things relatively clean on their end.

#16 Colorado

Colorado has firmly avoided the second-half collapse it fell victim to last season and seemingly has a very good shot of punching its ticket to the College Football Playoff if it’s able to keep up the momentum it’s built over the past month.

However, a berth is contingent on its ability to win the last two games of the regular season, and the Buffaloes definitely don’t want to look past a Kansas squad that’s listed as a 3-point underdog.

The Jayhawks are coming off a stunning upset against BYU and looked like a totally different team than the one that got off to a 1-5 start.

The Kansas defense should have what it takes to get plenty of pressure on Shedeur Sanders, and the offense can get things done on the ground and in the air. Colorado has repeatedly fallen victim to its inability to adequately stop the run, and if it comes up short on that front yet again, things could get very interesting.

#18 Army

Army heads into its showdown with Notre Dame sitting at 9-0, but all signs point to the Black Knights leaving Yankee Stadium with their first loss of the season as 14.5-point underdogs against the Fighting Irish.

Army has largely coasted by all of its opponents so far with the help of the stellar play of QB Bryson Daily, but none of them can even sniff the kind of talent Notre Dame boasts.

Navy was also looking pretty hot until the Midshipmen got absolutely destroyed against the Fighting Irish at MetLife Stadium at the end of October, and if Notre Dame can keep running the ball and shutting down drives as it has been, this has the potential to be an equally lopsided contest.

#21 Arizona State

This is the second game featuring two teams in the Top 25, and it’s the first one on this list where both sides have a very real chance of losing when you consider BYU is a 3-point underdog against Arizona State.

The Cougars have shown they have what it takes to shut down the running game, and their ability to limit Cam Skattebo is going to be a huge factor. The defense has also been a turnover factory this season, and they’re obviously hoping it will keep producing on that front.

If BYU can hold its own against Skattebo and subsequently put some more pressure on Sam Leavitt to compensate, they’ll be in a good position to pull off the miniature upset.

#22 Iowa State

Iowa State has largely been trending in the wrong direction after dropping two games following a 7-0 start, but it was able to get back on track with a win against Cincinnati.

Utah, on the other hand, is in the midst of a six-game losing streak but has managed to play a good chunk of its opponents ((including BYU) pretty close.

The Utes offense was uncharacteristically weak against Colorado last week, and they’ll need to return to form in a big way against a Cyclones team favored by 7.5 points.

Utah will need a lot of things to go their way to pull off the upset, but I still think they’ll be able to hang.

 

UNLV

UNLV is also a 7.5-point favorite over a San Jose State team that is absolutely cooking when it comes to its ability to pass the ball—an offensive strategy that stands in stark contrast to a Runnin’ Rebels squad that favors the run.

The Spartans do face some stiff competition from a UNLV defense that could stop it from executing its normal game plan, but if the latter comes up short on that front, San Jose State could spoil their opponent’s Mountain West Championship hopes.

#24 Illinois

This game is essentially a coin flip when you consider Illinois is a 1-point favorite against Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights have momentum on their side in the wake of two solid wins (including a win over a Minnesota squad that recently beat the Fighting Illini) and an offense that seems poised to take advantage of a relatively weak Illinois defense.

If the Rutgers D can step up to limit QB Luke Altmyer while putting a lid on the running game, they have a recipe for success.