We’re through over two-thirds of the NFL season. These ten teams are either vastly underperforming or exceeding expectations.
We’re over two-thirds of the way through the NFL season, and at this point we have a pretty good idea of what all 32 teams in the NFL are at this point.
Here are five teams that underachieved expectations, and five teams that exceeded expectations this year.
Underachieved: San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
The 49ers opened the season as one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl after getting oh-so close a season ago. But, this season has been really frustrating for the team’s fans. Injuries have piled up, starting with Dre Greenlaw’s injury in the Super Bowl last year and Christian McCaffrey’s troubles with both of his calves. They’ve never quite been on the right track all year, and it seems unlikely, though possible, they make the playoffs.
Underachieved: Cleveland Browns (3-9)
The Cleveland Browns are built to win now. But, the Deshaun Watson trade continues to torpedo the entire franchise. By the time he tore his Achilles in mid-October, the team’s season was essentially already over. They have a big offseason ahead.
Underachieved: Chicago Bears (4-8)
Expectations were high for a Bears team that finish 2023 playing good football and upgraded the roster this offseason, at least on paper. They started out 4-2, and it was feasible that their best football was in front of them. But, disastrous coaching by both offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and Matt Eberflus, both of whom now unemployed, has doomed them to six consecutive losses.
Underachieved: Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
Yes, the Cowboys have been falling short in the playoffs recently. But, they’ve also been one of the league’s very best regular season teams in the last few years. They had gone 12-5 in three straight regular seasons, and have a talented roster. But, costly injuries to stars Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons, poor coaching, and an inability to run the football got them out to a 3-7 start. They’ve won two straight with Cooper Rush under center, but it’s still likely a lost year for Dallas.
Underachieved: Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
When you look at Joe Burrow’s fantastic stats this year, you’d never guess that the Bengals are 4-8. You’d think that their record would be flipped, if not better. But, the defense has arguably been the league’s worst, and they’ve found a multitude of ways to lose game. For a team built to win a Super Bowl right now, it’s a huge missed opportunity.
Overachieved: Denver Broncos (8-5)
This season was supposed to be about developing Bo Nix and building for the future. But, the future is now in Denver. Nix is ahead of schedule, the defense has been tremendous, and Sean Payton has done one of the best coaching jobs of his career. A playoff berth seems likely.
Overachieved: Washington Commanders (8-5)
Like the Broncos, the Commanders season was supposed to be about developing Jayden Daniels and building for the future while they rebuilt their defense. But, they’ve been competitive all year, Jayden Daniels has established himself as a star, and the defense has shown a knack for getting big stop. A postseason berth seems to be in their grasp.
Overachieved: Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Nobody should be surprised that the Chargers overachieved expectations. Jim Harbaugh has quickly turned around teams before. They’ve reestablished themselves as a physical football team that can grind out games via controlling the clock and winning the turnover ball. And, Justin Herbert has been sensational under center. They’re probably a tier below the top contenders in the AFC, but they could win a playoff game.
Overachieved: Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
The Arizona Cardinals are in the midst of a massive rebuild that was expected to take quite a while. While they still have plenty of holes, a big bounce-back season from Kyler Murray and really good coaching from Jonathan Gannon has them right in the thick of things in the NFC West.
Overachieved: Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Many people significantly underrated the Vikings in the preseason. Even with an uncertain quarterback situation got even more uncertain after first-rounder JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. But, this was always a pretty good roster with one of the league’s best coaches in Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell, long considered a quarterback whisperer, has done wonders with Sam Darnold, and the team has played well in the clutch all year. It’s hard to say if they’re truly Super Bowl contenders, but the Vikings have definitely exceeded expectations.