The 10 College Football Teams In The Top 25 Most Likely To Lose In Week 9

There’s been no shortage of movement in the Top 25 over the course of the ongoing college football season, and it’s safe to assume we’re going to be treated to some more shakeups by the time the upcoming slate of games wraps up.

Week 9 of the college football season features three matchups between teams in the Top 25, multiple contests where the squad that should seemingly be favored is listed as the underdog, and a number of others where the school with a number next to its name has its work cut out for it.

In all, there are 10 teams who are currently considered the best of the best who could realistically end up with an L, so let’s take a closer look at why that’s the case.

#3 Penn State

Penn State has ended up in the top three for the first time since 2017 after getting off to a 6-0 start, but there’s no guarantee they’re going to improve to 7-0 as 6.5-point favorites over Wisconsin.

The Badgers are 5-2 with losses to USC and Alabama, and while none of their wins have come against particularly notable opponents, it’s been hard to ignore how their offense has been looking thanks in no small part to an impressive running game.

I do think Penn State’s defense has what it takes to shut Wisconsin down, but this also has the classic makings of a trap game when you consider the Nittany Lions will be facing off against Ohio State in a highly-anticipated matchup scheduled for next weekend.

I will be fairly surprised if Wisconsin ultimately pulls off the upset, but it’s still in the realm of possibility.

#8 LSU

#8 LSU vs. #14 Texas A&M is probably the Game of the Week, and the Aggies are actually listed as 2.5-point favorites thanks in no small part to the 12th Man Advantage that comes with playing at home.

Both teams have rattled off six consecutive wins since losing in their season opener, and this has all the makings of a shootout defined by the QB battle between Garrett Nussmeier and Conner Weigman.

I’m aware I’m offering the most trite, shallow, and generic analysis possible by saying this will probably come down to whatever side ends up making the least mistakes, but the fact that both squads are as evenly matched as they are means I won’t be surprised to see either one get the win.

#11 BYU

This is the second game where the team you’d probably assume is the favorite is actually the underdog, as 3-4 UCF has a 2.5-point edge against the 7-0 Cougars.

Why? Well, the Knights proved they can hang with top-tier talent after giving Iowa State a run for their money in a 38-35 loss last weekend, and BYU barely squeaked by an Oklahoma State team with the same record as UCF in a win with the same score.

UCF’s defense is probably going to be the biggest factor, as it’s struggled to defend against the pass and could be in for a long day if it can’t shut down Jake Retzlaff.

However, if the Knights are able to make life difficult for the QB while taking advantage of their rush-centered offense complemented by a dual-threat QB in the form of Jacurri Brown, they could hand BYU their first loss of the year.

 

#13 Indiana

Indiana has emerged as one of the more unexpected surprises of the 2024 season, and College GameDay will be heading to Bloomington as the 6-0 Hoosiers take on a 4-3 Washington team that’s listed as a 6.5-point underdog.

The biggest question surrounding Indiana is its QB situation after losing Kurtis Rourke to a thumb injury; Tayven Jackson appears to be a serviceable replacement, but it will still be a huge test for the backup QB.

Will Rogers is going to need to have a pretty flawless game for the Huskies if they want to pull off the upset on the road, and while I’m skeptical they’re going to be able to do so when everything is said and done, I think this is going to be much, much closer than the beatdown Indiana treated Nebraska to last weekend.

#14 Texas A&M

I’m not going to waste too much time rehashing what I said when I outlined why LSU could end up losing; this game is the ultimate coin flip, and anyone who tells you either side has a definitive advantage should not be trusted.

#17 Boise State

Boise State will face off against UNLV in Sin City on Friday night, and the Broncos are only listed as 3.5-point favorites in a game where the winner will take a big step toward making their College Football Playoff dreams come true.

The biggest factor in this game is obviously going to be Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State RB who is having one of the most absurd seasons in the history of college football. It’s hard to imagine UNLV will be the first team to shut him down, but the Runnin’ Rebels have the best rush defense of any team the Broncos have played so far.

Hajj-Malik Williams has also excelled since taking over at QB for UNLV in the wake of the drama involving Matthew Sluka, and if his team can at least make life difficult for Jeanty, they could end up getting a massive win.

#20 Illinois

Illinois has looked pretty impressive while getting off to a 6-1 start. Unfortunately, they’ve now found themselves tasked with facing off against a #1 Oregon team listed as a 21.5-point favorite.

There’s always a chance they could end up stunning the Ducks (and the college football world), but I don’t think it’s in the cards.

#21 Missouri

Missouri is also 6-1 with their lone loss coming to a talented Texas A&M team, but they’re facing an incredibly steep uphill battle as 17-point underdogs against #15 Alabama in a game where starting QB Brady Cook and RB Nate Noel likely won’t be playing.

The Crimson Tide have obviously shown they’re vulnerable with losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, but all signs point to the Tigers being too undermanned to hang.

#24 Navy

Notre Dame has won nine of its last 10 games against Navy (it’s 11 of the last 12 if you include two victories the Fighting Irish were forced to vacate), and all signs point to the Midshipmen losing their seventh consecutive game in the lopsided rivalry.

You can point to Notre Dame’s loss to NIU as a reason Navy shouldn’t be written off, but they haven’t really had much trouble with the competition since then and shouldn’t have much trouble improving to 7-1 as 13.5-point favorites.

#25 Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt obviously made waves with its shocking win over Alabama, but I have a very hard time imagining they’re going to be able to recapture that magic against a Texas team that’s going to head into the contest with a huge chip on its shoulder after falling to Georgia.

The Longhorns are 18.5-point favorites on the road, and while the Bulldogs were able to get the upper hand, I don’t see a scenario where the Commodores are able to do the same.