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NFL teams are willing to fire coaches seemingly quicker than ever. In fact, we have an entire day, “Black Monday”, the first Monday following the conclusion of the regular season, dedicated to the rash of firings that usually come that day.
But, as the crop of 2022 coaching hires shows us, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. In fact, it shows us that firing a head coach can come with huge risks.
Take a look at this graphic.
What a year for coaches pic.twitter.com/nW4B1HdORZ
— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) November 13, 2024
Following the 2021 NFL season, a record ten head coaching changes were made. That’s nearly one-third of the league. Of those ten, just six are still employed in the job they got. More seem destined to get fired.
Let’s go through coach by coach.
Matt Nagy
The Chicago Bears replaced Matt Nagy With Matt Eberflus. Eberflus is currently 14-29 in three seasons. After saving his job with a strong finish to 2023, the Bears have not lived up to expectations this year. It looks like he will be fired after the season.
Josh McDaniels
The Las Vegas Raiders replaced the fired Jon Gruden and spurned interim head coach Rich Bisassia to hire Josh McDaniels. He only lasted 25 games in charge, and was fired on Halloween in 2023. Reports were that McDaniels had started to lose the locker room.
Dennis Allen
Sean Payton retired, and the Saints promoted defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. Allen was fired last week after going 18-25 in New Orleans, including a seven-game losing streak to end his tenure.
Nathaniel Hackett
The Broncos fired Vic Fangio and hired Nathaniel Hackett. Despite trading for Russell Wilson, the Broncos offense was a complete mess. Hackett didn’t even get through his first season. He was fired after fifteen games, going 4-11.
Mike McDaniel
The Dolphins controversially moved on from Brian Flores, and brought in Kyle Shanahan protégé Mike McDaniel. McDaniel has been up-and-down, going 23-20 and making the playoffs in each of his first two seasons. His job should be safe this offseason.
Kevin O’Connell
Minnesota hired Kevin O’Connell to replace Mike Zimmer. O’Connell appears to be a fantastic head coach, is 27-16, and could be at the helm in Minnesota for a long time.
Brian Daboll
The Giants replaced Joe Judge with Brian Daboll. Daboll miraculously led the Giants to the playoffs in his first season. But, the Giants have been a disaster since. At 17-26-1, and 2-8 this year, Daboll looks to be on the hot seat. That being said, he could get another season.
Doug Pederson
The Jacksonville Jaguars replaced a disastrous Urban Meyer with Doug Pederson. He immediately led the team to the AFC Divisional Round and a hot start to the 2023 season. But, they’ve lost 13 of their last 16 games and have been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Most importantly, Trevor Lawrence has shown uneven development. Pederson is likely to be shown the door this offseason.
Lovie Smith
The Houston Texans surprised everyone when they hired Lovie Smith, who had recently been fired by Illinois. With Deshaun Watson having been traded and the team in tank mode, they went 3-13-1. Smith was fired after the season.
Todd Bowles
Todd Bowles replaced a retiring Bruce Arians and was promoted from defensive coordinator. Bowles has done an alright job, going 21-23 and winning the NFC South each of his first two seasons. The Bucs are better than their 4-6 record this season, but Bowles’ late-game management and porous defense has drawn criticism.. He’s probably safe for another season unless things spiral.
So, out of the ten coaches, only one has truly been a bona fide hit, that coach being Kevin O’Connell. The rest have been middling at best. Around half of the hires have been outright disasters.
Ultimately, it appears that there are more NFL teams. than there are competent head coaches. That’s a mathematical problem that’s going to lead to a lot of firings every year as teams play a strange version of musical chairs.