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No program in the history of Division I FBS college football has lost more games than the Indiana Hoosiers. The Hoosiers have been on the wrong end of the scoreboard 715 times over 138 years.
And yet, here we are, with the Indiana Hoosiers, of all teams, sitting atop the college football world of national champions.
We’d call it improbable, but that doesn’t seem to do it justice. What Indiana and Curt Cignetti just pulled off is borderline impossible. At least, that’s what everyone believed.
But if Indiana can do it, that means others can as well, right?
Sure, it’s wildly unlikely. But as we’ve discovered, it’s clearly not impossible. Which made us think, which programs in college football are the most likely to do the unthinkable, going from entirely off the radar to the top of the heap?
1) Texas Tech Red Raiders
© Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images We start with the obvious choice. Sure, the Red Raiders haven't been quite as poor as the Hoosiers across their program's history. But in 94 seasons, Texas Tech had never finished in the top 10 of the final AP Poll. That is, until this season.The Red Raiders entered the College Football Playoff at 12-1 and as the champions of the Big 12 for the first time in program in history.Bankrolled by billionaire alum Cody Campbell, Texas Tech figures to be a serious player for the foreseeable future, and with loaded recruiting classes and big-time transfers set to enter the fold, it's not hard to see a world where the Red Raiders lift a national championship trophy at some point soon.2) Duke Blue Devils© Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images
You have to go all the way back to 1960 to find the last time the Duke Blue Devils finished in the top 10 in the postseason polls.
Since that point, the highest finish in program history is 23rd.
Yes, the Blue Devils did finish No. 2 in the country at one point … all the way back in 1941 under legendary head coach Wallace Wade, for whom their stadium is named. But in modern history, Duke has been every bit the bottom-feeder that Indiana was.
However, like the Hoosiers, the Blue Devils have plenty of donors with deep pockets, as evidenced by them being able to pay now-former quarterback Darian Mensah $4 million in 2025.
It was also the Blue Devils, not CFP runner-up Miami, that won the ACC this past season. Is it likely that Duke suddenly wins a national championship? Of course not. But if we’re betting on long shots, there are worse bets you could make.
3) Vanderbilt Commodores
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Like Texas Tech earlier on this list, Vanderbilt just makes sense.
Led by controversial Heisman finalist Diego Pavia, the Commodores, who have the 10th-most losses in FBS history, went 10-3 this past season and finished the season ranked 15th, their highest postseason ranking since 1948.
Pavia is now gone. But head coach and alumnus Clark Lea remains, and the Vandy just beat out perennial power Georgia to sign the top-ranked high school quarterback in the country, Jared Curtis.
It’s clear that those around Nashville and the Vanderbilt program have both the ability and desire turn the ‘Dores into a regular contender, and if that happens, there’s no reason they can’t compete for national championships.
4) Northwestern Wildcats
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Okay, hear me out…
Yes, the Northwestern Wildcats are historically bad. In fact, Northwestern sits just three losses behind the Hoosiers as the program with the most losses in FBS history, and could well overtake them next season.
And Northwestern didn’t exactly light things up in 2025, going just 7-6 under second-year head coach David Braun.
But the Wildcats have one thing working for them in their quest to make the leap to the top of the college football world…a lot of money.
Billionaire alum Patrick Ryan, for whom the university’s football stadium and basketball facilities are named, donated a record $480 million to have the stadium completely renovated.
And while Ryan and Northwestern haven’t been big players in the NIL world yet, there’s nothing stopping them from deciding to enter the playing field. And if they do, Ryan won’t be alone.
The private university on the outskirts of Chicago is absolutely loaded with extremely wealthy alumni, and if those alums decide they want their alma mater to be good at football, it wouldn’t take long to flip the script.
5) James Madison University
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James Madison is, by far, the least likely team on this list to be able to make an improbable leap to the college football world.
After all, JMU is a public university. It does not boast a long list of wealthy alumni, and it isn’t even in one of four current “power conferences.”
But let’s dig a bit deeper.
The Dukes have long been successful at the Division 1-AA/FCS level, having won national championships in 2004 and 2016. In 2019, they hired none other than Curt Cignetti, who led the program to the FCS national title game where it fell to North Dakota State.
Cignetti and JMU finished second, third, and third in his three years coaching at the FCS level before making the jump up to FBS in 2022.
Once there, the Dukes had immediate success, going 19-4 in their first two seasons at the top level and finishing in the postseason top 25 in 2023.
Despite Cignetti leaving, JMU kept rolling under new head coach Bob Chesney. Chesney went 9-4 in year one, and 12-2 this past season, leading the Dukes to the College Football Playoff for the first time.
Yes, he’s since left for UCLA. But James Madison has shown a commitment to winning over multiple decades, it has a strong system for fundraising, and it’s a logical candidate to move up the ladder yet again in the next wave of college football realignment.
Combine those factors with a solid geographical recruiting footprint, and it’s not entirely impossible that the Dukes could come out of nowhere and make a magic run. After all, who predicted Indiana?