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Many Florida fans wanted Head Coach Billy Napier fired after last year’s 5-7 debacle that saw Florida lose its last five games of the season to miss out on bowl eligibility. But, he’s back for a third season, and I think everyone agrees that his seat is very hot.
There’s one big problem for Billy Napier. Even if Florida is an improved team this year, as they should be, they’re playing arguably the nation’s toughest schedules. It’s hard to see them winning the eight or nine games it may take to save him,
According to Brett McMurphy of The Action Network, eight Gator opponents are projected to be ranked in the AP Preseason Top 25.
He’s almost assuredly not wrong about that. Florida has to play Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State, all of whom should be ranked. Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, and Florida State should be top ten teams in the preseason polls, and LSU and Tennesse won’t be far behind.
And, if you’re thinking their other four games are cupcakes, think again. Yes, Samford is a cupcake that should be a guaranteed Gator win in Week 2. But, the other non-conference game that hasn’t been mentioned is UCF, who is always solid! And, Mississippi State and Kentucky round out the SEC schedule. Neither one of those teams are walkovers.
The nature of life in superconferences like the Big Ten and SEC going forward is that you’re going to have absolutely loaded schedules. But, that’s another level. Not only did Florida draw most of the top opponents in the SEC and miss a few of the weaker ones, but three of their four non-conference games are tough. It’s just a brutal, brutal schedule.
The good news is that Florida should be better, and they weren’t that bad last year. Yes, that five-game losing streak was bad, but they were competitive during the skid.
They brought in a good transfer class, and freshman five-star quarterback DJ Lagway could supplant Graham Mertz and provide an instant talent infusion. But, they could be a much better team this year and still not be bowl-eligible with that schedule. There’s no way that Florida will tolerate a third-straight season under .500, as they went 6-7 in 2022 in Billy Napier’s first year.
If Florida does indeed fire Billy Napier this year, they will have some tough questions to ask themselves. Billy Napier’s resume suggests he can coach and that he should be successful in the SEC.
He was a standout wide receivers coach at Alabama and then was a good offensive coordinator at Arizona State before going 40-12 at Louisiana-Lafayette. That guy should be winning.
But, if he doesn’t win this year, that would mean the school has gone through four head coaches in Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen, and Billy Napier since Urban Meyer. None of them have consistently won in Gainesville. And, at a certain point it becomes about the school, not the parade of coaches.
Who knows, maybe Florida surprises us all and has a great year against that brutal schedule and Billy Napier saves his job. But, it looks unlikely, that’s for sure.