In a newly obtained memo, Major League Baseball warned its players that participating in prediction markets is a violation of the league’s betting policies. This stance by MLB goes directly against several prediction market companies’ claims that they are not gambling entities.
They key difference is that prediction markets have been deemed legal in some states where sports betting is not legal. Federal regulators, unlike Major League Baseball and the National Football League, do not see prediction markets as being gambling.
In a Aug. 26, 2025 memo obtained by Front Office Sports titled “Re: Baseball Related Prediction Markets,” read, “Several companies (including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, among others) are now offering what they call ‘prediction markets,’ which allow members of the public to risk money on the outcome of specific events, including baseball and other sporting events.”
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s office and the MLB players’ union both went on to warn players that “participating in ‘prediction markets’ to risk money on any outcome related to baseball games or events” is considered gambling.
The memo, according to multiple sources, was distributed across both MLB and Minor League Baseball. It was and also posted in visible areas near player locker rooms.
Prediction markets are welcome in the NHL, but not in certain states
Interestingly, the National Hockey League has gone in the opposite direction, signing marketing deals with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Meanwhile, the NBA is in the midst of a gambling scandal involving players and a coach.
Also, several states, including Michigan, Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, have issued warnings. Those warnings include threatening operators with the loss of their licenses if they offer predictions markets to customers. Court cases involving prediction markets are also still in litigation in New Jersey, Maryland, California, and Massachusetts.
In a memo issued to all state-licensed gaming operators, the Michigan Gaming Control Board wrote “that any involvement in the offering of sporting event contracts, directly or via an affiliate, key person, related business entity, or other association, will have implications relative to your licensure in Michigan.”
In October, the Nevada Gaming Control Board sent out a memo stating that offering event contracts “constitutes wagering.” Violations could lead to an operator’s license being revoked.