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All signs point to Miami ending up on the outside looking in when the College Football Playoff lineup is solidified based on the rankings that were released on Tuesday. Their loss to Syracuse ended up being the deciding factor, but there’s also a pretty compelling butterfly effect involving Boston College’s decision to swap QBs midway through a game a few weeks prior.
It seemed like the Miami Hurricanes were well on their way to punching their ticket to the College Football Playoff and winning the ACC Championship game, but things took a very interesting turn when Syracuse pulled off a major upset with a 42-38 win in a contest where the Orange were listed as 11.5-point underdogs.
That loss meant Clemson earned the right to face off against SMU for an ACC title, and while the Hurricanes secured the 12th spot in the most recent College Football Ranking, it’s a virtual certainty they’ll end up being leapfrogged by either Iowa State or Arizona State in the wake of the Big 12 Championship game.
Miami obviously didn’t do itself any favors by losing to Syracuse, as the only other blemish on its record was a loss to a Georgia Tech team that came tantalizingly close to stunning Georgia in the final week of the regular season.
Their opponents also deserve credit for largely outperforming expectations this season. The 9-3 Orange did have a pretty inexcusable loss to Stanford , but their only other losses were to a Pitt team that was undefeated at the time (although that win preceded a brutal collapse) and a Boston College squad that looked much better after deciding to switch things up at quarterback.
I couldn’t help but think about the ramifications of that QB switch after seeing the situation Miami has found itself dealing with, as I’d argue what was a pretty insignificant move in the grand scheme of things ended up having pretty major implications for the Hurricanes.
There’s a little bit of background required, as Boston College headed into the season with Thomas Castellanos as their starter. The dual-threat QB was the standout player for the Eagles last season, but it became increasingly clear he’d regressed as he struggled to get things clicking in the offense instituted by first-year head coach Bill O’Brien.
That brings us to what unfolded when BC faced off against Syracuse on November 9th. The Eagles pulled out to a 14-0 lead before the Orange scored 21 unanswered points, and O’Brien opted to replace Castellanos—who’d thrown for just 14 yards and only completed two of his seven passes—with Grayson James midway through the third quarter.
The Eagles largely relied on the rush for the rest of the game, but James was still 5-for-6 and threw for 51 yards while piloting the comeback that led to Boston College walking away with the 37-31 victory. O’Brien announced he’d be sticking with him going forward, which led to Castellanos quitting the team in the middle of a season where BC gave SMU a run for its money prior to capping off the year with back-to-back wins.
As a masochistic fan of Boston College football, I find it very hard to imagine BC would have beaten Syracuse if James hadn’t been tapped to replace Castellanos.
If we assume Syracuse still would have beaten its next two opponents, it would have headed into its showdown with Miami with a 9-2 record and riding a four-game winning streak in what would have almost certainly been a game between two teams in the Top 25.
The aforementioned loss to Stanford probably would have been a red flag for the College Football Playoff committee when it came to determining how to penalize Miami for falling to Syracuse, but I have a very hard time believing it would have knocked them all the way down to the 12th spot that turned out to be the kiss of death for the Hurricanes.