© Craig Strobeck/Imagn
Historically speaking, the Cinderella run is one of the most exciting parts of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. But now, thanks to the introduction of the NIL, transfer portal, and a number of other factors, the phenomenon may well be gone for good.
According to Stewart Mandel of The Athletic, since the NCAA Tournament moved to 64 teams in 1985, only seven times have seeds 13-16 all gone winless in the opening round of the tournament. However, this year marked the second season in a row that it has happened.
Before this year, it had never occurred in back-to-back tournaments.
NCAA Tournament Cinderella Runs Are More And More Unlikely
But the numbers get even worse for small schools the further you dig into them.
On Friday, the favorites (by seed) went 16-0 yesterday. In total, 13 of the 32 first-round games were decided by 20 points or more, and 12th-seeded High Point, via its upset victory over fifth-seeded Wisconsin, is the only mid-major still alive in the tournament.
Let’s take things a step further.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzellow shared that the average margin of victory in Friday’s 16 games was 19.7 points. That marks the highest average margin of victory on a single day (that had more than three games) in NCAA tournament history.
Overall, the margin of victory for teams in the first round was 17.4 points. That marks the highest average margin of victory in the first round since the field expanded in 1985.
So not only are small schools not upsetting major conference programs in the opening round. They’re not even coming close.
Looking for a scapegoat? The easy answers are NIL and the transfer portal. Simply put, major conference programs have more money to offer players. And when players are allowed to switch schools every season, it’s no surprise that they end up concentrated at those programs.
In fact, the lone remaining mid-major, High Point, has one of the highest NIL budgets of any mid-major in the country.
Gone are the days of George Mason making the Final Four, or Steph Curry leading Davidson to the Elite Eight. These days, those teams would likely be stripped for parts well before they had a chance to get that far.
Unfortunately, it appears that the “madness” element of March Madness might well be a thing of the past.