Getty Image / Adam Glanzman
After two long days without it, the NFL is back tonight with a Thursday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Both teams come in at 1-1 and will be looking for a huge win.
The New England Patriots are entering the game as a consensus 6-point underdog, a significant number in the NFL. But, that bodes well not only for the Patriots but for those who bet on the team, as well.
Through two weeks, it’s been a pretty unpredictable NFL season so far that has featured some truly shocking results. That just shows how much parity there is in the league, pretty much from top-to-bottom. Other than the Carolina Panthers, every NFL team has been in at least one game with a chance to win late in the game. Underdogs have been playing particularly well.
How well have underdogs been playing? According to ESPN Bet, teams that are underdogs of six points or more are 8-0 against the spread through two weeks this year.
In fact, the Patriots are one of the teams that has covered as a big underdog early in the year. They were around a 7.5-point underdog in Week 1 against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Not only did the Patriots cover the spread, they actually won the game outright, 16-10.
Other teams, such as the Saints, Buccaneers, and Raiders won outright in Week 2 as touchdown-plus underdogs. Lines will get sharper and sharper as the season goes on and there is more data available. But, right now, it seems like Vegas is overestimating favorites league-wide.
The Patriots have already shown that they have the ability to win as an underdog. But, on the flip side, New England isn’t going to be sneaking up on anyone anymore after playing well twice to start the year. Plus, they’re playing on a short week after playing an overtime game last week. That seems a recipe for trouble, and the Jets could become the first team to cover a touchdown-plus spread this year.