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Although it’s still a small sample size after two weeks, massive underdogs have been killing the bookies this season.
Through the first two weeks of the 2024/25 NFL season, NFL underdogs of at least 5.5 points are now 9-1 against the spread. Those 9 wins against the spread also include five outright victories, as noted by former ESPN sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes.
NFL underdogs of 5.5+ points are now 9-1 ATS this season with FIVE outright wins
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 17, 2024
Those five upsets include the Atlanta Falcons over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football, the Las Vegas Raiders over the Baltimore Ravens, the New Orleans Saints over the Dallas Cowboys, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Detroit Lions, and the New England Patriots over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1.
The two upsets that have particularly decimated survivor leagues across the country are the Pats’ Week 1 victory over Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Cincy, and the Raiders’ shocking upset of defending MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Baltimore this weekend.
The success of underdogs isn’t the only bizarre trend we’ve seen to start the NFL season. Passing touchdowns are also down a remarkable degree, as there have been almost 20% fewer touchdowns through the first two weeks of this season compared to last.
Heading into Week 3, there are seven games with spreads of at least 5.5 points: the New York Jets -6.5 over the New England Patriots, the Cleveland Browns -6 over the New York Giants, the Tampa Bay Bucs -7 over the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 over the Carolina Panthers, the San Francisco 49ers -7 over the Los Angeles Rams, the Buffalo Bills -5.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Cincinnati Bengals -8 over the Washington Commanders.
Now that the trend has been established, however, look for bookies to likely make adjustments and clean house in Week 3, which kicks off on Thursday night with a matchup between the Patriots and Jets, who will be playing in their home opener, marking Aaron Rodgers’ first game at MetLife Stadium since tearing his Achilles in September 2023.