NHL Power Rankings After The Olympics: 10 Most Likely Stanley Cup Winners This Season

With under two months left in the NHL season until the start of the Stanley Cup Playoffs the league’s best are coming back from the Winter Olympics with a fire inside their bellies. And what was once a one horse race for the President’s Trophy has gotten interesting as the Lightning, Hurricanes, Stars, and Wild have closed the gap on Colorado.

At this point, the Colorado Avalanche are still the clear favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They have an easier pathway through the West and they are the most dominant team in the NHL so far this season, aside from getting beaten up by metaphorically and physically during their 4-2 loss in Tampa on January 6th, a game I was at to celebrate coach Jon Cooper’s 1,000th career game with the Lightning.

NHL Power Rankings: 10 Most Likely Stanley Cup Winners This Season

Currently, the Colorado Avalanche hold a 5-point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning with each team having played 55 games. Colorado’s +74 goal differential is best in the league but they have shown some cracks in the armor in recent weeks, losing 5 of their final 10 games before the Olympics break (9 total losses this season). Whereas the league’s other top teams appeared to be getting stronger. Let’s dive into the current NHL Power Rankings after the Olympics!

10. Ottawa Senators

The Sens are currently sitting in 5th in the Wild Card standings but are just 6 points out from a Wild Card spot. They have a +7 goal differential, .553 record (28-22-7), and are 6-3-1 in their past 10.

Going forward, Ottawa has the 9th toughest strength of schedule before the Playoffs but the teams ahead of them are (mostly) the same teams ahead of them in the standings. Ottawa has easy, winnable games against Vancouver, Calgary, New York, and others. And while MoneyPuck has them at just a 42.5% chance of making the playoffs it also gives them a 4.2% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. When it comes down to it, in MoneyPuck we trust.

9. Edmonton Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers would LOVE to be the team that breaks the Canadian Stanley Cup drought. 33 years is a LONG time!

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl rank 1st and 5th in points among all skaters but as has been the case in recent years the gap between Edmonton’s top line and the rest is about as wide as the Grand Canyon. According to MoneyPuck, Edmonton has a 4.9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup after the Olympic break.

8. Detroit Red Wings

Don’t look now but the Detroit Red Wings are sneaky good this season. They are currently tied with the Canadiens for the 6th most points in the NHL (72) with a 33-19-6 record so far this season.

Detroit’s biggest red flag is they are the only team in the top 16 with a negative goal differential at -1. Heck, the Utah Mammoth have a +26 G/D. But as things stand, Detroit has a 77.6% projection of making the Playoffs and a 3.3% chance of winning the cup. Unfortunately, their remaining schedule is against opponents with a combined .578 winning percentage.

7. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins currently sit in 8th in the NHL in points (70) with a +23 goal differential. Their remaining strength of schedule is #1 in the NHL against opponents with a combined .590 winning percentage. We will learn A LOT about them in the weeks ahead and how they fare against top competition.

Pittsburgh currently has a projected 85.5% chance of making the Stanley Cup Playoffs and a 4.8% chance of winning the Cup. Sidney Crosby has been fantastic so far this year when healthy and if stays fit down the stretch they could be a problem for any team they face.

6. Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas is once again a contender. They’ve racked up a .596 winning percentage, sit 12th overall in points and 4th in the West, and +12 goal differential.

They currently sit on a 93% chance of making the Playoffs and 5.3% chance of winning the Cup. Jack Eichel has 68 points which is tied for 9th among all skaters. Mark Stone isn’t too far behind either with 60 points.

5. Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild are a virtual lock to make the Playoffs at this point with a 99.98% chance according to Money Puck. Their chance of winning the Cup sits at 7.8% following the Olympics.

Overall, Minnesota is tied with Tampa and Carolina for the 2nd most points in the NHL at 78. The Wild sit smack dab in the middle with the 16th toughest strength of schedule throughout the rest of the season. And Kirill Kaprizov has been an absolute beast so far with 70 points (32-38 G/A). When Minnesota gets through to the Playoffs, they will have a relatively easy path to the Western Cup Finals if things shake out like they currently stand.

4. Dallas Stars

Getting to the top 4 we start with the Dallas Stars. They’re 3rd in the West and just one point off the Wild. Dallas has a 99.99% playoff chance according to Money Puck and 8.7% chance of winning the Cup.

The Stars’ remaining strength of schedule is 10th, facing opponents with a combined winning percentage of .573. All that in mind, they will also benefit heavily from an easy path to the Western Conference Finals once they find themselves in the Playoffs. Mikko Rantanen ranks 8th in points among all skaters (69), Jason Robertson ranks 11th, and Wyatt Johnston ranks 23rd. They are a well balanced team who can go toe to toe with any other team in the league.

3. Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche have been contenders for several years now. They won the Stanley Cup in 2021-22 and have remained in ‘win now’ form ever since.

Currently, Colorado has the best record in the league with 83 points (37-9-9) and a league-best +74 goal differential. They started the season so unbelievably strong it was hard to fathom they had any holes in their armor but the Avalanche have slowed down a little and the other top three teams in the West have only played better as the season progressed.

Nathan MacKinnon is already one of the all-time great skaters. He is 2nd in points with 93, just 3 being McJesus, and Martin Necas ranks 16th with 62. Scott Wedgewood has been a beast between the posts with a .912% save percentage.

The only reason Colorado isn’t #1 or #2 in the power rankings right now is simply because the West is soft compared to the East. I firmly believe this year’s Stanley Cup winner will come out of the East. That said, Money Puck has Colorado at a 10% chance of winning the Cup which is third best overall, so it’s not just my intuition speaking.

2. Carolina Hurricanes

At #2 are the Carolina Hurricanes. Mark it down: the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Winner will not only come out of the East they will emerge from the Atlantic Division.

Carolina is tied for 2nd in the NHL with 78 points, sits on a +34 goal differential, and has gotten it done repeatedly in regulation with a 37-14-4 record. And the most remarkable thing to me is how deep the Hurricanes are. Their top skater is Sebastian Aho who has 57 points which is tied for 27th in the league. This is not a one man or one line team. Carolina is relentless. Jalen Chatfield has a +20 +/- and Brandon Bussi is one of the best goalies in the league, boasting a .908 save percentage with 23 wins and 2 shutouts.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning

At #1 is the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have been on fire for months now and this squad knows what it takes to win a Stanley Cup.

Lightning Captain Victor Hedman and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy are two of the best team leaders in the league. Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point are two of the most feared skaters in the league and Tampa has seen incredible production from its 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines.

Currently, Tampa Bay is tied for 2nd in the league with 78 points but has the second-highest goal differential of +59. They only trail Colorado by 5 points so the President’s Trophy is still very much in play.

Money Puck projects Tampa Bay’s playoffs chances at 99.92% and their chance of winning the Stanley Cup at a league best 12.8%, just a hair better than Carolina’s 12.1%. But only one team from the East can hoist the Cup and Tampa Bay has the experience that Carolina lacks. They also have Vasy in net who has been the NHL’s best goalie so far this season.