Stats Suggest That Quarterback Play Across The NFL Is Having A Serious Mediocrity Crisis

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Your eyes aren’t fooling you as the data backs it up: passing is down in the NFL this year, and the quarterbacks, in general, just seem far worse than they were in the previous decade.

Through the first two games of the 2024/25 NFL season, the stats behind touchdown passes back this hypothesis up, as there have been just 69 (nice) touchdown passes thrown thus far. Last year, that number was 86 — that represents nearly a 20% decrease.

In 2022 and 2020, there were 105 touchdown passes thrown through two games. In 2021 and 2020, it was 110.

At the start of the 2024 season, these were the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL:

Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts
Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets
Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers
Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers
Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
CJ Stroud – Houston Texans
Daniel Jones – New York Giants
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints
Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns
Gardner Minshew – Las Vegas Raiders
Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks
Jacoby Brissett – New England Patriots
Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles
Jared Goff – Detroit Lions
Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders
Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
Justin Fields – Pittsburgh Steelers
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
Sam Darnold – Minnesota Vikings
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
Will Levis – Tennessee Titans

Of those 32 quarterbacks, it can be argued that only a handful of them are legitimate superstars at the position: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson.

Then there are the veterans who were once at or near the top of the sport and can still lead a winning team when healthy, such as Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins. The next category, however, is likely what’s leading to the downturn in passing TDs, as there are a bunch of guys in the NFL who are just… guys. These guys range from rookies to solid vets to okay to average to awful.

This list includes Baker Mayfield (although he’s trending toward the franchise QB tier), Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, Gardner Minshew, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson, Deshaun Watson, Bryce Young, and Bo Nix. That is *a lot* of teams in the NFL with mid to below-average QB play.