Patrick Mahomes And The Crapshoot That Is The NFL Draft

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It might be an understatement to suggest that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a transformational NFL football player. He’s been called the GOAT, in line to supplant Tom Brady as the greatest QB ever, and given nearly any and every accolade that can be to a pro football player.

But as we head into the 2024 NFL draft—one where quarterbacks like USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix and Oregon’s Bo Nix could potentially go in the first round—it’s worth revisiting the crapshoot that is the NFL draft and how Mahomes was perceived.

Let’s begin with a look at the healthy list of surefire first round QBs who people thought could amount to NFL Hall-of-Famers, but ended up as busts. Those were players like Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Art Schilcter, Todd Marinovich, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Robert Griffin III and the list goes on. Never heard of any of them? There’s a reason. They were studs for one, two or maybe three years in college and then poof—they were gone to either injury or simply just falling well short of expectations.

Not quite in Brock Purdy territory—the Mr. Irrelevant who’s become an impactful NFL quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers—Mahomes was the antithesis of the can’t-miss first rounder. The Texas Tech product was a complete mystery to casual draft watchers who had no idea who he was outside of being the son of former MLB pitcher Pat Mahomes. Ardent draft watchers didn’t think much of him either:

ESPN’s Todd McShay wrote: “Patrick Mahomes‘ tape in the lead-up to the 2017 NFL draft was scary. It was littered with off-balance passes, sidearm deliveries, leaning throws, backward drifts and lots of improvisation. His footwork was frantic; he didn’t consistently step through to his target; and he looked more like shortstop hurling a baseball across the diamond on the move than a potential first-round franchise quarterback.

ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper wrote, “It really all comes down to Mahomes. You’d prefer not to give up so much draft value for a quarterback who shouldn’t be in the immediate plans. In this case, the Chiefs felt they had no choice.”

Steven Ruiz of USA Today gave the Chiefs a C-minus for picking Mahomes. He said, “Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.”

NFL.com’s Chad Reuter gave the Chiefs a B-plus, “Patrick Mahomes has all of the tools to be a great quarterback. Chiefs GM John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid saw Brett Favre in Green Bay, and they have to see some of that gunslinger attitude in Mahomes. There is a risk factor here given his penchant for throwing the ball anywhere and from any arm angle (which will turn into interceptions in the NFL), and they have up a future first-round pick to get him. But if anyone can get Mahomes to adjust and succeed, it’s Reid.”

Ultimately, there is nothing surefire about any of these guys. Will Caleb Williams be the second coming of John Elway? Who really knows? We all think he will be, but the bottom could also fall out for a variety of reasons. But one thing is certain—whoever guesses right on these guys will certainly be telling us about it as often as they can for the foreseeable future.