With the Super Bowl coming up, everyone is placing their bets about which teams are actually going to compete.
While the playoffs are supposed to determine which team actually deserves to play in the Big Game, any sports fan will tell you that there are many factors—such as bad calls—that can lead to the final lineup being a bit off.
But what if it’s not just a few bad plays? What if there’s a larger narrative scripting the whole league, turning it into wrestling? That’s what some TikTok users are claiming, and they say they’ve got the numbers to back it up.
What’s Going On With The Denver Broncos And The New England Patriots?
In a video with over 112,000 views, TikTok user Tim Steinbrecher (@timsteinbrecher428) lays out what appears to be a conspiracy in the lead-up to the Super Bowl.
Looking at the betting markets for the upcoming Broncos v. Patriots game, Steinbrecher says that something is amiss.
“New England is minus three and a half. That’s it against Denver. Denver in some places getting five and a half,” Steinbrecher starts.
“There is no way this is possible,” he continues. “90.61% of the money on the money line is on New England. 55% are laying the points—which means 45% of people getting the points, which isn’t a lot, are on Denver.”
Seeing this seemingly bizarre betting behavior, Steinbrecher debuts an interesting theory.
Is The NFL Scripted In Favor Of The Broncos?
To roll out his conspiracy, Steinbrecher notes some interesting history about Jarrett Stidham—whom he refers to as “Jason Statham, whatever the f—his name is.”
“Did you know that Jarrett was drafted in 2019 by Bill Belichick? The same guy who thought ahead and drafted Tom Brady right before Drew Bledsoe got hurt? And Tom Brady took him to the Super Bowl and won?” he asks. “Is that the [expletive] angle the NFL is gonna go?”
From here, Steinbrecher says that the results of the Super Bowl could come down to family connections.
“Jarrett is married to the daughter of the CEO for Harris Blitzer Sports and Entertainment, Tad Brown. They own the 76ers and the New [Jersey] Devils, along with a piece of Joe Gibbs Racing,” he starts.
“This is how conspiracies work and where the money goes,” he continues. “One owner getting [expletive] by the 76ers, gonna get the money back by his daughter’s husband.”
“This might not be as easy as I first thought it might be,” he concludes. “Denver money line.”
Is There Any Evidence To Support This?
Not necessarily.
While some of the betting behavior noted by Steinbrecher is uncommon, and the narrative he spins is certainly entertaining, there’s no evidence to definitively suggest that there’s some grand narrative at play that’s pushing the Denver Broncos toward the Super Bowl.
Longtime NFL fans should be familiar with this type of thinking. In 2024, the internet was abuzz with claims that the playoffs were scripted so that the Kansas City Chiefs would enter the Super Bowl. The reason given is that having the relationship between Taylor Swift and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce onscreen would boost ratings.
But 2024 wasn’t alone in this type of thinking. As previously noted by BroBible, claims that “the NFL is scripted” aren’t exactly new, with examples of alleged fixing going back decades.
Why Is Everyone Suspicious?
While these theories have floated around for ages, there may be a renewed interest in such conspiracies given the rise in both sports betting and “prediction markets” like Kalshi and Polymarket.
As noted by NPR, gambling books and “prediction markets” like these can lead people to believe that all events, even innocuous ones, are in some way linked to the money line.
Even if there may be a reasonable explanation—for example, it’s not exactly surprising that a football player got into a relationship with someone whose family has a connection to sports—someone with money on the line may see conspiracy where none exists.
Naturally, there’s always a chance that conspiracy theorists actually got it right this time around and that there’s a grand scheme at play. Recent gambling scandals suggest that, at least occasionally, there is some funny business going on in professional sports, especially as sports betting becomes more common.
Whether you should bet your money on this idea, however, is up to you.
Steinbrecher Responds
In a TikTok DM exchange, Steinbrecher offered some further thoughts on what was happening.
“I would say that Vegas knows more than the public, whether it’s injuries, abilities, or the tendencies of referees in a game,” he wrote. “With the amount of questionable or missed calls, even with replay, it does make you wonder if the NFL works off of a ‘What’s best for the league’ system on who wins/loses.”
“I have heard a lot of talk that the NFL is classified as an entertainment business, which people believe means they are not beholden to fair play,” he added. It should be noted that there is not substantial evidence to indicate this is the case.
His Take On Gambling Apps
Steinbrecher then offered his thoughts on whether the problem is getting worse or better given the rise of gambling apps.
“Not sure I’d say it’s worse but with all the social media platforms and betting apps it is more scrutinized,” he said. “30 years ago a blown call to cost the game could be seen on SportsCenter a few times and discussed at work. Now, you can instantly pull up replays and share on social media for everyone to have an opinion on it. The NFL loves the attention, good or bad, so they either never fix it for the attention or because they are doing it on purpose.”
“Plus, as we learn more and more about games being fixed in [the] NCAA and the past NBA referees, why is it so hard to believe that the NFL could be sanctioning these things?” he continued.
Sunday’s Big Game
Ahead of Sunday’s game, Steinbrecher says to keep an eye on the markets.
“There’s a lot of info out there to be analyzing,” he explained. “When you look at the amount of money the sportsbooks are going to win or lose, always choose what side wins them more. An example was in the National Championship game. I had heard that the futures bets on Miami were staggering and so, even though the sportsbooks were going to lose more money on the game bets with Indiana, the amount they’d lose with paying out the futures bets was greater.”
@timsteinbrecher428 Replying to @marcusw58 watch this!! I just figured it out!! @New England Patriots will lose to the @Denver Broncos because of where the money is!! @NFL is going to run back the Tom Brady script!#nfl #nflfootball #nflplayoffs
Commenters Cry Conspiracy
In the comments section, many users bought into the TikToker’s theory. Others answered Steinbrecher’s theories with some of their own.
“90% of the money is on NE ML, yet the line hasn’t moved. Sounds like a trap,” wrote a user.
“NFL does not want Stidham on TV on Superbowl Sunday…Trust me,” said another. “They will make sure the refs get New England to move on.”
“It’s so obvious the nfl profits the money off the team that everybody bets on so everybody’s gonna bet on the patriots to win,” offered a third. “Meanwhile Denver will win as underdogs and the nfl and Vegas profits all the betting money , whoopty do !!!!”
BroBible reached out to Steinbrecher via TikTok DM and comment.