Thanks to a bump in popularity from the Republican National Convention last week in Cleveland, Donald Trump is surging ahead of Hillary Clinton in new election polls.
According to a new CNN poll, Trump now leads Clinton in the presidential race by capturing 44 percent of the votes, compared to Hillary with 39 percent, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holds 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 3 percent.
In head-to-head matchups, the RNC provided Trump with a 6 percent bounce, jumping past Clinton 48 percent to her 45 percent. This is the best CNN poll results for Trump over Clinton since September 2015. The Donald also improved his favorability rating over the RNC. Those who viewed Trump as favorable rose from 39 percent before the convention to 46 percent afterward.
CNN states that independent voters provided the spark for Trump:
Trump’s new edge rests largely on increased support among independents, 43% of whom said that Trump’s convention in Cleveland left them more likely to back him, while 41% were dissuaded. Pre-convention, independents split 34% Clinton to 31% Trump, with sizable numbers behind Johnson (22%) and Stein (10%). Now, 46% say they back Trump, 28% Clinton, 15% Johnson and 4% Stein.
As far as Trump’s actual RNC performance, 40 percent called his 75-minute speech “excellent” or “good.” There was 45 percent of voters who said his speech “reflected the way they feel about things in the U.S. today,” compared to 48 percent that said it did not reflect their views. The CNN/ORC Poll contacted 1,001 adults, 882 of which were registered voters, over the phone from July 22-24. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
But it’s not just the CNN poll that shows Trump swelling in the polls. The site FiveThirtyEight, a statistics-based site run by analyst Nate Silver that covers everything from politics to baseball to food, also found that Trump skyrocketed past Clinton in recent days.
You can see Trump make great strides in the past week.
You can see much more election forecasts over at FiveThirtyEight.
Remember, we have yet to see the polling implications of mass email leak of the Democratic National Committee by Wikileaks. Plus there are the possible ramifications by disgruntled Bernie Sanders supporters who may rebel against Hillary Clinton for hiring soon-to-be former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who will resign after the Democratic convention after the email scandal. The leaks showed that the DNC purposely made attempts to hurt the Sanders campaign, despite the fact that they are supposed to remain neutral. And now the head of that organization that attempted to stifle Sanders’ campaign is Hillary’s “honorary chair” of her 50-state campaign.
Only 105 days, 12 hours and 46 minutes until the 2016 U.S. presidential election. And I have a feeling that these polls are going to pivot all willy nilly the entire time.