Here Are Our 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread
I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. We have three very watchable games on Thursday, which is a nice plus. May your Thursday include a nice 10 hours of football, two pounds of food, and a 45-minute tryptophan-induced nap. I’m already preparing myself for that second helping of stuffing. I think I’ll be good as long as the refs from the Patriots and Bills game last Monday don’t show up to blow Thanksgiving like they blew the calls in that game. Sammy Watkins is still waiting to be ruled out of bounds.
Locks of the Week:
Carolina PK over DALLAS
Either Vegas thinks really highly of Tony Romo because they appreciate the bottle service he buys when he’s in town or they realize the Cowboys are a completely different team behind center. (Here’s a secret: Romo had a dry bachelor party. If you believe that anyway. So it’s not the former.) But what about Dallas really makes you think they’re winning this game? Because the offense scored 17 points in Romo’s first game back? (Remember the defense scored a touchdown.) Because the defense is seen as much better with Sean Lee and Greg Hardy both playing? That’s debatable. What does Carolina need to do to earn some respect in the NFC?
J.Camm’s Pick: Dallas
Minnesota +1 over ATLANTA
Minnesota came down to earth last week in their loss to Green Bay, but they have a chance to get back on their feet quickly. Atlanta has lost four out of their last five game and their offense is ranked 22nd in pass offense according to Football Outsiders, which should never happen with the best wide receiver in football and a supposed franchise quarterback on the roster. Their defense certainly isn’t going to hold the line as it gave up 24 points to Matt Hasselbeck including a game-winning drive.
St. Louis +9 over CINCINNATI
What happened with Case Keenum last week was unfortunate. It was clear to anyone with eyes that Keenum was in rough shape when his offensive lineman tried to raise Keenum by his arm and it slipped through the lineman’s hand like a slinky. The best part is it doesn’t matter who starts the game for St. Louis in this one. Jeff Fisher is going to go to his typical road playbook of calling 30 run plays. Robert Quinn should be back this week as the Rams defense and running game keeps them in this one.
J.Camm’s Pick: Cincinnati
Trap Games of the Week:
Philadelphia -1.5 over DETROIT
Chip Kelly is supposed to be an offensive genius, but the Eagles are ranked 29th in passing offense according to Football Outsiders. There are already rumors that ownership and Kelly are ready to part ways. Have the players given up? Will they show up for a national TV game in the same way they did for Dallas? Having Sam Bradford back limits the turnovers, which should help. The Lions have actually played much better defensively since coming back from London and firing the head coach. They’ve only given up an average of 14.5 points in the last two games and held down two good offenses. I just can’t convince myself to pull the trigger.
J.Camm’s Pick: Detroit
Rest of the Picks:
GREEN BAY -9.5 over Chicago
Is it ironic that fat Eddie Lacy is playing on Thanksgiving? He looked better last week, but the Packers will need to keep him away from the stuffing until after the game. Green Bay looked better offensively last week and the Chicago defense will help then continue to look good. This game comes down to whether or not Alshon Jeffery can play and not be a decoy. Chicago won’t be able to keep up otherwise.
J.Camm’s Pick: Chicago
San Diego +4 over JACKSONVILLE
I keep finding myself back on San Diego despite their reason streak of bad play. The Chargers can’t run the ball, but their 8th ranked passing offense according to FO should be able to move the ball against the Jaguars 30th ranked passing defense.
J.Camm’s Pick: San Diego
Oakland -2 over TENNESSEE
Like with San Diego, I find myself back on Oakland. Tennessee could only score 13 points against Jacksonville, so how many will they score on an equally bad Oakland defense? I have a feeling I’m going to regret this pick, but we’ll find out Sunday.
J.Camm’s Pick: Oakland
HOUSTON -3 over New Orleans
Like the Lions, the Texans have looked a lot better defensively in recent weeks. They’ve won three in a row thanks to their defense not allowing more than 17 points in any game. New Orleans can’t stop anyone defensively. Brian Hoyer should look like Joe Montana this weekend.
J.Camm’s Pick: Houston
N.Y. JETS -3.5 over MIAMI
The Jets are in a free fall having lost four of their last five games. The Dolphins have lost three of their last four. Someone has to win! I have more faith in the Jets coach than I do the Dolphins coach, so I’ll take the home team.
J.Camm’s Pick: Jets
KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Buffalo
Don’t look now, but the Chiefs have won four in a row and are 5-5. They’re firmly in the playoff hunt. Their offense and defense are somehow ranked in the top ten by Football Outsiders. Their defensive line has the third best adjusted sack rate in the league and Tyrod Taylor just got the piss beat out of him and now has one less day to recover.
J.Camm’s Pick: Kansas City
N.Y. Giants -2.5 over WASHINGTON
I lost ATS on the last Giants game, so I’m down to 8-2 on Giants games this year. The Giants are 5-6 after the bye under Tom Coughlin, so that doesn’t make me feel good. Washington has looked much better offensively at home than they have on the road, so that’s another bad feeling for the Giants. It’s a good thing the Giants own Washington. They’ve won five in a row and six of the last seven. Take the over in this high scoring affair.
J.Camm’s Pick: Giants
Tampa Bay +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
There’s just something loveable about this Bucs team. There’s no reason to fade them now as they continue to get better. Matt Hasslebeck is 3-0 as the Colts starter, but he’s got cold teams in all of his starts. I’ll gladly take the points.
J.Camm’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Arizona -10 over SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco generally plays better defense at home, but there’s no reason to think they’re offense will get more than 10 points on Sunday. The Cardinals are susceptible to being beaten through the air as we saw last week, but San Francisco certainly doesn’t have the weapons for that.
J.Camm’s Pick: Arizona
Pittsburgh +4 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks just aren’t the same team at home. Their defense is a shell of its former self and now it has to go up against the fourth best offense in the league. Pittsburgh 6th ranked run defense will keep Seattle’s running game under wraps, so the Steelers should keep this game close.
J.Camm’s Pick: Pittsburgh
New England -3 over DENVER
Bill Bellichick relies heavily on taking away the other team’s offensive strength. What’s the Broncos offensive strength with Brock Osweiler under center? Do we know? Bellichick will likely try to make Osweiler beat them, but maybe that’s not a good thing. Osweiler has some weapons, which is something Tom Brady seems to be missing these days. There’s no way New England’s offense will be as effective as it’s been all years. If you notice the Patriots haven’t scored 30 points in the last three weeks. Their offense keeps getting worse, which makes complete sense given the injuries. The line, however, has moved from -5.5 to -3, which makes New England much more appealing.
J.Camm’s Pick: New England
CLEVELAND -2.5 over Baltimore
The switch back to Josh McCown from Johnny Manziel actually makes Cleveland a better play here. At least Johnny Football is still good at partying because his football days in Cleveland are over. McCown can certainly lead the Browns down the field against Baltimore. The same can’t be said for Matt Schaub.
Last Week: 8-5-1