If you’ve read my NCAA Tournament previews before you’ll know how I’m not a fan of Bill Self. The numbers are simple. Self has been at Kansas for 12 years. He’s been a #1 seed five times, but has only reached one Final Four in those tournaments. That’s underachieving. Self has also underachieved with two #2 seeds not getting out of the first weekend and a #3 seed losing in the first round. Self is a great recruiter, but the bottom line is his teams underachieve. (Ducks while things are thrown by Kansas fans…)
Why is this year different? For starters Kansas has the easiest road of any #1 seed. Getting to the Elite Eight should be easy and they’ll be a solid favorite against whoever they face in Louisville. The second reason I’m backing Kansas this year is Devonte Graham. It’s reminiscent of when Kansas employed the two point guard system in 2008 with Sharon Collins and Mario Chalmers. Collins was a bit of an untrustworthy loose cannon, but Chalmers was the smarts and testicular fortitude that helped everything fall into place. Graham has the same effect on Frank Mason. Graham elevates his game in the biggest moments and has the ability to lock down anyone defensively on the perimeter. He’s smart and has slowly increased his presence for the team in recent weeks. Add that to the always steady Perry Ellis and Landen Lucas and this is the year Kansas helps Bill Self live up to his seed.
The rest of the region is a complete crapshoot after you get past the Jayhawks. I love the set-up for Arizona, but as of this writing I’m nervous about the potential match-up against Wichita State. The Shockers play great defense and have put together a quality record when their team is fully healthy. I will, however, be pushing Arizona very far in my bracket if Vanderbilt somehow upsets Wichita State. They’ve got interior scoring, which is always a plus when looking for easy baskets in close games. Gabe York and Allonzo Trier provide plenty in the backcourt. Sean Miller’s coaching ability always gives his teams an edge. Arizona has made the Sweet 16 in every season Miller has coached in the desert.
Speaking of quality coaching, Jim Larranaga doesn’t get as much acclaim as some others, but he can really coach them up too. Miami will be in the mix and is the risk-averse choice to face Kansas in the Regional Final. Sheldon McClellan gets all the acclaim in the backcourt, but Davon Reed is what helps get the Hurricanes over the hump. He’s incredibly clutch and his shooting ability keeps defenses honest. Tonye Jekiri and Kamari Murphy give Miami the bodies on the inside to bang with anyone. Just remember these guys have wins over Duke, Louisville, Virginia, and Utah. The lack of road quality road wins is the thing that just has me hesitating from going all-in.
I ragged on Bill Self for his tournament resume, so I can’t let Jay Wright slide. Villanova has been seeded two or better in three of the last five years, but hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend. What makes this team different? I’m not so sure. Iowa’s offensive set-up will cause them major problems in the second round before they even run into Arizona or Miami. Nova’s best non-conference win was St. Joseph’s. That’s not impressive. The image of Nova getting blown-out by Oklahoma and losing to Virginia sits in my memory. Daniel Ochefu playing at less than 100% hurts their defense tremendously.
Wichita State is definitely interesting if they get through Vanderbilt. Their advanced metrics have them #12 ranked team at Kenpom.com. Something just hasn’t come together for Maryland despite all their talent. Their lack of depth in the backcourt has been a problem, but the real issue is finding the lineup that works best for the team. Coach Mark Turgeon just hasn’t figured out the best way to deal with the combination of Jake Layman, Robert Carter, Diamond Stone, and Damonte Dodd. California has two freshmen that will be lottery picks and has won nine of their last 11 games. They’re plenty talented, but eventually their youth will catch up to them in a close game. They lost two close games down the stretch against talented teams, so I’m not sure they’ve learned how to win those ones yet.
First round upset that will happen: Connecticut over Colorado
There’s just something about the Connecticut Huskies this time of year. I’m still reeling at Jalen Adams’ game-tying shot in triple overtime against Cincinnati. UConn is certainly no slouch as they were ranked earlier in the year. It just took them a while to put things together. Guard play wins in March and UConn has plenty of them to throw at Colorado. In a game between two teams with good defenses, it’ll be the guards of UConn will be the edge.
First round upset that won’t happen: Hawaii over California
Let’s first start out by saying that both Maryland and California have the potential to be upset. They each haven’t performed as well as expectations from the preseason. Hawaii is catching some noise because of their guards and stretch four Stefan Jankovic. California, however, can match with high-end perimeter players of their own and Ivan Rabb is athletic enough to stay with Jankovic if he’s at the four, which he is most of the time.
Best Non-Bracket Bets:
Miami -14 over Buffalo – The Hurricanes have one of the best offenses in the country. Buffalo’s 148th ranked defense (via Kenpom.com) won’t be able to contain it and their 148th ranked offense won’t be able to keep up.
Connecticut -3 over Colorado – UConn’s got the guards. Colorado has the bigs. Guards win in March.
Arizona +40000 to win the National Championship – Those following college basketball this season know this tournament has the potential to be wide open. When looking for value, why not take someone with a great coach and plenty of talent. (I also like the odds on Arizona to win the South Region whenever they’re released.)