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Montreal Canadiens goalie Jacob Fowler next to a man choking
You have to feel pretty good about the prospect of earning a win when you have a four-goal lead in an NHL game. It has historically been a statistical certainty if you have that margin heading into the final three minutes of the third period, but the Canadiens managed to buck that trend after falling victim to one of the worst choke jobs to ever unfold on the ice.
A two-goal lead is frequently referred to as “the most dangerous lead in hockey” due to the perception that players on a team that pulls out to that margin have a tendency to get a bit complacent and make mistakes the opposing side can capitalize while attempting to erase that deficit.
It sort of goes without saying that’s not reflected in reality, as the stats (somewhat obviously) show that a one-goal lead is actually the most dangerous one based on the percentage of NHL teams who managed to stage a comeback during the third period.
The chances of securing a win dramatically rise when you’re up by three goals heading into the final 20 minutes, and as of Tuesday morning, it wasn’t a stretch to suggest it was impossible to get out of a four-goal hole when you consider no NHL team had ever achieved that feat.
However, that’s no longer the case after the Canadiens made history for all of the wrong reasons.
The Canadiens fell victim to the biggest collapse in NHL history after the Jets pulled off an unprecedented comeback
The Canadiens headed into Tuesday night’s showdown with the Jets with a 9-3-2 record, and they were listed as the favorite against a 4-8-3 Winnipeg team that was riding a nine-game losing streak (with two of those defeats coming in overtime).
It sure looked like that number was going to rise to 10 based on how things were going over the first 57 minutes of the game, as Montreal goaltender Jacob Fowler stopped the first 36 shots he faced as his team pulled out to a 4-0 lead.
He surrendered his first goal of the night after Tyrel Bauer made the score 4-1 with 2:39 remaining in the third period, but it still seemed like the Canadiens had things in the bag.
However, things got much more interesting after Morgan Barron made it 4-2 less than 45 seconds later, and we suddenly had ourselves a game after Kyle Connor narrowed Montreal’s lead to one with a minute to go.
The Jets pulled the goalie after getting a power play with 35 seconds left on the clock, and they only needed two seconds to tally the equalizer after Connor netted his second goal of the night and helped force overtime.
The Canadiens still had the chance to salvage things and walk away with the two points they’d seemingly secured before things fell apart, but they were forced to settle for one after Dylan Samberg capped off the comeback and sealed the 5-4 win.
THE JETS JUST RECORDED THE LATEST FOUR-GOAL COMEBACK WIN IN NHL HISTORY 🔥
THEY WERE DOWN 4-0 WITH JUST 2:40 LEFT IN REGULATION 😱 https://t.co/P1cMRFA8f8
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 4, 2026
Winnipeg’s triumph was positioned as the latest four-goal comeback in NHL history, and if you’re wondering just how unlikely it was, OptaStats took a look at the archives and found no team down by four had managed to score more than two goals—never mind four—in the final three minutes in the 3,256 games where that scenario previously unfolded.
There have been 3,257 instances all-time of an NHL team being scoreless & down by 4+ goals with under 3:00 left (reg or post).
Of those 3,257 teams, 3,256 could do no better than cut the deficit in half.
All except the @NHLJets on Tuesday.
They came all the way back to win. https://t.co/PMTe0EfiCr
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) November 4, 2026
John Buccigross supplemented that nugget by looking at every game where a team was down by four or more goals, noting those squads posted a record of 0-9652-0 before the Jets added the first entry to the win column.
Yikes.