The College Football Playoff is going to expand to a 24-team format as soon as 2027. This change, which is widely opposed by the fans, (not so) indirectly places way too much value in preseason rankings.
Those rankings are decided on by the Associated Press.
Under this new format, college football teams will now play their way out of the postseason instead of playing their way in. Three-loss teams — and some four- or maybe even five-loss teams — are going to have the opportunity to play for a national title.
The College Football Playoff is expanding to 24 teams.
Pete Thamel of ESPN was the first to report the news on Thursday. The College Football Playoff “is nearing a deal to expand to 24 teams.” It would be more surprising if it doesn’t happen at this point. The new format will kick in next year, 2027, once it gets the green light during the final approval process.
According to Pete Nakos, the 24-team format will include five auto bids for the top Power Four and Group of Six champions. The remaining 19 at-large bids will be decided by the College Football Playoff committee. More games will be played on campus. More teams will get byes in the first round.
Here is how that would’ve looked based on last season’s rankings at the end of the regular season:
- FIRST ROUND
- No. 17 Virginia at No. 16 USC
- No 18 Arizona at No. 15 Utah
- No. 19 Michigan at No. 14 Vanderbilt
- No. 20 Tulane at No. 13 Texas
- No. 21 Houston at No. 12 Miami
- No. 22 Georgia Tech at No. 11 BYU
- No. 23 Iowa at No. 10 Notre Dame
- No. 24 North Texas at No. 9 Alabama
- SECOND ROUND
- Virginia/USC at No. 1 Ohio State
- Arizona/Utah at No. 2 Indiana
- Michigan/Vanderbilt at No. 3 Georgia
- Tulane/Texas at No. 4 Texas Tech
- Houston/Miami at No. 5 Oregon
- Georgia Tech/BYU at No. 6 Ole Miss
- Iowa/Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
- North Texas/Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
The next two rounds will be played at/as the Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl. And then the national championship game.
This expansion was inevitable but I didn’t expect it to happen so soon. And, honestly, as much as I don’t love the new format, I don’t hate it. I question whether teams like Arizona, Houston, Iowa and North Texas deserved a chance to play for a national title last season, but the FCS playoffs expanded to 24 teams in 2013 and I love the FCS playoffs. It’s coming so get used to it, I guess.
Preseason rankings hold too much value.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Preseason rankings don’t actually mean anything. Nobody really knows whether a team is going to be good until they play a game (or games, plural). Especially in the transfer portal and NIL era of college football, where almost every roster looks completely different every year.
To make matters worse, the preseason rankings are decided by the Associated Press. As we have seen many times before, the AP Poll is often bias and/or voted on by people who do not watch the games.
Unfortunately, with the 24-team playoff, their initial preseason rankings matter way more than they should. Let me explain.
A three- or even four-loss team that starts the season ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll will have a much better chance of making the 24-team College Football Playoff than a three-loss team that starts the season unranked. It is much easier to move a highly-ranked team back — and still keep them in the top-25 — after a loss than to move an unranked team up — and put them in the top-25 — after a win.
Does that mean that the preseason No. 1 deserves to make the Playoff over the preseason unranked team? Not necessarily. Is that going to be what happens? In most scenarios, yes.
Here is an example of what the 24-team bracket would look like today:
Regular season games also matter less with the new format. Two losses kill you in a four-team format. Three losses (probably) kill you in a 12-team format. Three losses is not a big deal in a 24-team format.
Maybe I am wrong. Maybe the College Football Playoff committee will be able to ignore the preseason rankings when they pick their 19 at-large bid-getters. I doubt it. That stinks.