Minnesota was projected to finish dead last in the Big Ten prior to the start of the 2023/24 men’s college basketball season. The Golden Gophers have defied the odds!
They are set to finish near the middle of the conference with a long-shot chance of making the NCAA Tournament by winning a few games in their home state at the Big Ten Tournament next month. It is unlikely, but not impossible.
Regardless of how things shake out down the stretch, Minnesota is a great team by betting standards. Good teams win, great teams cover and Ben Johnson’s program has covered far more than it hasn’t.
In fact, the Golden Gophers’ success has left sportsbooks nationwide completely baffled. They have covered the spread in 23 of 26 games so far this year, going 12-1 as a favorite, 11-2 as an underdog, 17-1 at home and 6-1 on the road. The line has been largely irrelevant throughout the entire season.
No matter what the line might be, a middle-of-the-pack Minnesota team is probably going to cover.
Oddsmakers can’t comprehend the remarkable run. Seamus Magee, a trading manager at BetMGM, told For The Win that he has been unable to figure out why a team that was picked to finish dead last in the Big Ten has been able to go 23-3 against the spread.
There’s always a team like this, but I honestly don’t know what is particularly special about this team. They’re a .500 Big Ten team, their offense is Top 40 on KenPom, but they’re not crushing teams on 3-pointers. What’s even more shocking is that they’re 23-3 ATS and one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country. That’s usually not a recipe for covering spreads.
— Seamus Magee, via For The Win
A sportsbook director at The Borgata Casino & Spa in Atlantic City said that he has adjusted the Gophers’ power rating throughout the season. Doesn’t matter. They cover.
The Gophers have been playing above their power rating all season. I’ve upgraded them seven points from where I had them to start the season. We have been raising Minnesota throughout the season, they just keep beating the number.
— Thomas Gable, via For The Win
Minnesota has five games left in the regular season:
- Sunday, Feb. 25 — @ Nebraska
- Wednesday, Feb. 28 — @ Illinois
- Saturday, Mar. 2 — vs. Penn State
- Wednesday, Mar. 6 – vs. Indiana
- Saturday, Mar. 9 — @ Northwestern
Lines aren’t out, but it will likely be the underdog in at least three of five!