The 7 Most Shocking NFL Regular Season Upsets Of The Past Decade

Unlike college football, the talent gap between NFL teams is pretty even, so large game spreads are rare. But when they happen, and the underdog wins, it’s even more surprising, as was the case with these wildly unlikely outcomes over the past decade or so.

These Are 7 Shocking NFL Regular Season Upsets

The NFL is as hard to predict as any sport given the general parity, but it still features plenty of games that seem pretty lopsided on paper. However, we’ve been reminded time and time again that there’s a reason they’re actually played.

Even though it seems like there’s an upset to write about every week, some stand out more than others. That could be because of how the game played out, how bad the winning team was, or how the season finished for the teams involved.

Also, these are all relatively recent upsets because there’s plenty to choose from over the last few years.

It’s also hard to name the exact spread of games when every book seems to have a different line. I tried to be as accurate as possible, but all the winners were significant underdogs.

Dolphins 34, Patriots 33 (2018)

Going into this game on December 9, 2018, the Miami Dolphins were a .500 team and 9.5-point underdogs vs. the Pats. New England never pulled away, but they were up five on the last play of the game and needed a stop to win.

69 yards away from the end zone, the Dolphins opted for a lateral play instead of a Hail Mary, and it paid off with a walk-off Kenan Drake touchdown that will forever be known as the Miami Miracle.

The Brady/Belichick era Patriots historically struggled in Miami (relative to other AFC East opponents), but this one stands out as the most shocking.

Jets 23, Rams 20 (2020)

The New York Jets were staring down a winless season when they entered SoFi Stadium to play the Rams on December 20, 2020. They entered the game as three-score underdogs with the line closing at Rams -17.

However, the 0-13 Jets took a quick 13-0 lead and never looked back.

The Rams were one of the league’s best teams at the time, holding a 9-4 record, and weren’t considered candidates to give the Jets their first win.

Ironically, New York fans look back on this game not very fondly, as the win ultimately cost them the number one overall pick (which would end up being Trevor Lawrence, leaving the Jets with Zach Wilson).

Commanders 32, Eagles 21 (2022)

The Eagles started their 2022 campaign with a perfect 8-0 record. Philly looked unbeatable and would ultimately reach the Super Bowl that season.

At the time, it was hard to see where the first loss would come, but a home game against the 4-5 Washington Commanders wasn’t a popular choice, especially when you consider Philly closed as an 11-point favorite.

But in a Monday Night Football game, the Eagles lost three fumbles en route to a two-score loss and their first of the year.

Jaguars 9, Bills 6 (2021)

Today, this reads like a gritty defensive game between two good teams, but the Jaguars were firmly not good at the time. Jacksonville was 1-6 Jags when they hosted the 5-2 Buffalo Bills on November 7, 2021, and they were a home 15-point dog.

Josh Allen was the star of the game, but not the quarterback. Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen recorded an interception, a sack, and a fumble recovery, helping the Jags hold Buffalo to just six points.

Three second-half turnovers by Buffalo helped drive this shocking result, and although neither team scored a touchdown, the Jaguars walked away with their second win of the year.

Colts 19, Chiefs 13 (2019)

In Mahomes’ second full year as a starter, things looked good again, with the team 4-0 entering the game against Jacoby Brissett’s 2-2 Indianapolis Colts.

The Chiefs were 11-point favorites and virtually a lock to go 5-0.

The Colts played what would be their best game of the year, holding Mahomes to 22/39 passing and only one touchdown. They kicked four field goals and scored a touchdown that would prove to be just enough to get the win.

Looking back, it was even more of an upset: the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl, and the Colts won only four more games that year.

Cardinals 35, Eagles 31 (2023)

In the second-to-last game of the year, the Eagles were coming off a 1-3 skid, but all the losses were to solid teams; the 3-12 Cardinals offered a chance to get back on track.

Some books had the Eagles as up to 13-point favorites, and the game started at a pace for them to cover.

Philly did just that, jumping out to a 21-6 lead before Kyler Murray and the Cardinals stormed back, shocked the Eagles, and handed them their fourth loss in five games.

This Eagles season was sandwiched between two Super Bowl runs, and it’s fair to say the Cardinals derailed it because Philadelphia didn’t win another game the rest of the season.

Browns 13, Packers 10 (2025)

The 2-0 Packers were hosted by the 0-2 Browns in a Week 3 matchup that looked lopsided. The road Packers were 8-point favorites, and most people weren’t giving the Browns a shot.

Cleveland fell behind 10-0, and the game was playing out as expected. However, 13 unanswered brown points, capped off by a walk-off field goal, handed the Packers their first loss of the year.

Green Bay went on to make the playoffs, and the Browns finished with five wins, making this one of the most confusing results of the year.