Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Mar 9, 2026; Houston, TX, United States; United States pitcher Paul Skenes (30) walks off the field in the second inning against Mexico at Daikin Park.
Since being selected with the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Paul Skenes had been nothing short of dominant on the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The key word there, however, is “had.”
Skenes made his Major League debut in 2024 and was immediately a superstar, winning the Rookie of the Year Award and finishing third in National League Cy Young voting. He followed that up with an even more impressive 2025 season, winning the Cy Young after leading the league in FIP, WHIP, and ERA+.
However, this season has been a different story for Skenes. His average fastball velocity has been down dramatically, and he went from a 1.96 career ERA over two seasons to a 3.91 ERA this season. His hits per nine innings number jumped from 6.5 to 7.7. and strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped from 5.14 to 4.09.
The Pirates look on track to finish above .500 for the first time since 2018, but won’t make the playoffs in the National League yet again, marking an 11-year drought. Skenes’ 10-11 record is a big reason why.
So, what went wrong?
Paul Skenes Thinks The World Baseball Classic Is To Blame For His Falloff
Prior to the 2026 season, Skenes joined Team USA for the World Baseball Classic, which altered his normal preseason routine. He believes this is the reason he hasn’t been up to snuff in 2026.
“There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that,” Skenes told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit.”
“Usually, that time of year, you’re kind of ramping up and it’s a little bit slow. You can kind of get onto the slope and find your body,” he added. “One live [batting practice], you’re topping at 97 [mph], and then the next you’re 98, 99. And that wasn’t the case this year. … Looking back, I don’t think that really helped.”
Skenes’ average fastball velocity was 98.8 as a rookie. It dropped slightly to 98.1 miles per hour in 2025. And while he expected a slight dip in 2026 in hopes of pitching more innings, he didn’t anticipate the number dropping all the way to 96.8.
“I didn’t really have a number on it,” Skenes said. “But I would have liked to throw harder than I have this year.”
There’s just one problem with Skenes’ argument. The World Baseball Classic hasn’t seemed to affect the rest of the elite pitchers in the league. Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez pitched for the Dominican Republic and is likely to finish as the runner-up for the National League Cy Young.
Meanwhile, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been elite for the Los Angeles Dodgers after pitching for Team Japan.
Sure, not everyone’s experience was the same. But it seems like an easy excuse for Skenes after a season in which his team really could’ve used him at his best.