Big changes are coming for the Green Bay Packers ahead of the 2023 season.
One of those big changes should eb the expectations for the season.
After years of dominating the NFC North and multiple trips to the NFC Championship Game, this may be the year to expect a bit less from the Packers.
They already started their decline last season, finishing 8-9 and missing the playoffs.
There are reasons to believe that decline will continue in 2023, but sportsbooks expect them to finish with around the same amount of success.
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has their win total set at 7.5.
Even at -150, this line looks like a gift.
Aaron Rodgers isn’t the only important piece that will be missing from the team that won 8 games last year. The Packers’ offense also lost Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan this offseason. We know how the Packers are when it comes to free agency, so they haven’t replaced either. Based on their recent history, it’s hard to trust them to do it in the draft either.
They also may play a 3rd place schedule next season, but that won’t necessarily make their lives much easier.
They still have to take on the AFC West and get the wrong teams at home. They’ll welcome the Chiefs and Chargers, the defending champs and a playoff team, to Lambeau. The two more winnable matchups in the division, the Broncos and Raiders, will be played on the road against teams that are hoping to improve after significant changes.
Two of those games will be expected to be losses and all four could end up in that column.
The biggest issue is that it’s really hard to look at their schedule and see definite wins.
In the past they’ve had 4 in their own division.
Last year they lost twice to the Lions. A repeat wouldn’t be surprising and many will probably expect loss in Detroit.
Even the Bears might not be the easy win for the Packers that they’ve been in the past. The Bears have brought in Chase Claypool and DJ Moore since the trade deadline. With Darnell Mooney still on the roster, Justin Fields has his best targets of his career.
They’ll also have a strong run game with Fields and D’Onta Foreman. The Packers have struggled for years to stop the run.
Even a split with the Bears would make it tough to go over 7.5 wins.
4 matchups with the NFC South will help their cause, but they’ll probably need a winning record against the division and they could have a tough time on the road against the Falcons and Panthers.
Their schedule finished out with a road trip to play the Giants, who already beat them last year and should be even better next year. There’s also a trip to play in Pittsburgh and a home game against the Rams, who are a pretty big question mark for next season.
How successful the Packers will be next season will come down to what Jordan Love is capable of in his first full year under center.
From what we’ve seen, it’s hard to believe that he’ll be able to win as many games as Aaron Rodgers did with a worse offense around him and the same defense.
With that, it currently looks like there are quite a few more games we can expect them to lose than win with a bunch of coin flip games mixed in.
Sports books seem to believe Love can keep up the pace Rodgers set last year, but right now that looks like wishful thinking.